2025 · Week 2

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Michael Penix

22·6

Vikings

Minnesota

QB J.J. McCarthy

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -3.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+2.3est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapVikings
  • -0.008EPA / play-0.094
  • 44.5%Success rate43.3%
  • +0.041EPA / dropback-0.115
  • -0.073EPA / rush-0.062
  • 9.2%Explosive rate8.4%
  • -3.36CPOE-2.84
  • 33.5%Third-down rate32.4%
  • 62.2%Red-zone TD rate55.7%
  • 1.82Points / drive1.75
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 9–6 since 1999

Meetings average 44.7 points. MIN are 8-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W14ATL @ MIN21–42MIN
2023 · W9MIN @ ATL31–28MIN
2020 · W6ATL @ MIN40–23ATL
2019 · W1ATL @ MIN12–28MIN
2017 · W13MIN @ ATL14–9MIN
2015 · W12MIN @ ATL20–10MIN
2014 · W4ATL @ MIN28–41MIN
2011 · W12MIN @ ATL14–24ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–MIN
ATLQ1 15:00555Field goal3–0
MINQ1 11:1249Turnover on downs3–0
ATLQ1 9:18626Field goal6–0
MINQ1 6:483-1Punt6–0
ATLQ1 4:35541Turnover6–0
MINQ1 1:281663Field goal6–3
ATLQ2 7:06618Punt6–3
MINQ2 3:23313Turnover6–3
ATLQ2 2:03723Field goal9–3
MINQ2 0:25247Field goal9–6
MINQ3 15:0038Punt9–6
ATLQ3 14:041269Field goal12–6
MINQ3 6:17826Punt12–6
ATLQ3 1:283-4Punt12–6
MINQ4 15:001-10Turnover12–6
ATLQ4 14:5552Field goal15–6
MINQ4 11:1639Punt15–6
ATLQ4 9:391388Touchdown22–6
MINQ4 3:22434Turnover22–6
ATLQ4 2:3539Punt22–6
ATLQ4 0:2000End of half22–6

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Michael Penix Jr.13/2113500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bijan Robinson221436.50
Tyler Allgeier16764.81
Michael Penix Jr.1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Drake London34490
Kyle Pitts45370
Bijan Robinson35250
Darnell Mooney24200
Tyler Allgeier1140
Ray-Ray McCloud0200

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
J.J. McCarthy11/2115802

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Mason9303.30
J.J. McCarthy5255.00
Aaron Jones5234.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Jefferson36810
Jalen Nailor35310
Adam Thielen23260
T.J. Hockenson13120
Jordan Mason2380
Aaron Jones0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

2.53%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.2%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.65
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+2.27