Closing spread
MIN -3.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+2.3est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.008EPA / play-0.094
- 44.5%Success rate43.3%
- +0.041EPA / dropback-0.115
- -0.073EPA / rush-0.062
- 9.2%Explosive rate8.4%
- -3.36CPOE-2.84
- 33.5%Third-down rate32.4%
- 62.2%Red-zone TD rate55.7%
- 1.82Points / drive1.75
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 44.7 points. MIN are 8-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Penix Jr. | 13/21 | 135 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 22 | 143 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 16 | 76 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake London | 3 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| Kyle Pitts | 4 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Bijan Robinson | 3 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Darnell Mooney | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. McCarthy | 11/21 | 158 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Mason | 9 | 30 | 3.3 | 0 |
| J.J. McCarthy | 5 | 25 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 3 | 6 | 81 | 0 |
| Jalen Nailor | 3 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Jordan Mason | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.2%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.65
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.27