Closing spread
ATL -2
Total
45
Model margin
+0.7est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Falcons
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.022EPA / play+0.000
- 40.7%Success rate46.4%
- +0.050EPA / dropback+0.113
- -0.013EPA / rush-0.195
- 9.6%Explosive rate8.5%
- +2.87CPOE-0.01
- 39.2%Third-down rate47.3%
- 57.3%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
- 1.94Points / drive1.77
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 44.7 points. ATL are 6-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 20/28 | 174 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 29 | 158 | 5.4 | 2 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 5 | 33 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Matt Asiata | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 4 | -3 | -0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Rudolph | 7 | 10 | 53 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 4 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 2 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 1 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Matt Asiata | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 22/31 | 230 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tevin Coleman | 18 | 110 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Terron Ward | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Tamme | 5 | 6 | 69 | 0 |
| Roddy White | 6 | 8 | 60 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 5 | 7 | 56 | 0 |
| Justin Hardy | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Nick Williams | 3 | 4 | 16 | 1 |
| Terron Ward | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.1%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.75
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.74