2015 · Week 12

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Teddy Bridgewater

20·10

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -2

Total

45

Model margin

+0.7est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapFalcons
  • +0.022EPA / play+0.000
  • 40.7%Success rate46.4%
  • +0.050EPA / dropback+0.113
  • -0.013EPA / rush-0.195
  • 9.6%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +2.87CPOE-0.01
  • 39.2%Third-down rate47.3%
  • 57.3%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
  • 1.94Points / drive1.77
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 9–6 since 1999

Meetings average 44.7 points. ATL are 6-8-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2ATL @ MIN22–6ATL
2024 · W14ATL @ MIN21–42MIN
2023 · W9MIN @ ATL31–28MIN
2020 · W6ATL @ MIN40–23ATL
2019 · W1ATL @ MIN12–28MIN
2017 · W13MIN @ ATL14–9MIN
2014 · W4ATL @ MIN28–41MIN
2011 · W12MIN @ ATL14–24ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–ATL
MINQ1 15:00420Punt0–0
ATLQ1 12:2739Punt0–0
MINQ1 10:121478Touchdown7–0
ATLQ1 3:42146Turnover7–0
MINQ1 3:28757Turnover7–0
ATLQ2 14:161678Field goal7–3
MINQ2 6:13615Punt7–3
ATLQ2 3:45937Turnover7–3
MINQ2 1:241042Missed field goal7–3
ATLQ2 0:0200End of half7–3
ATLQ3 15:001672Turnover7–3
MINQ3 7:591045Field goal10–3
ATLQ3 1:4945Punt10–3
MINQ4 14:501372Field goal13–3
ATLQ4 6:2441Turnover on downs13–3
MINQ4 4:34340Touchdown20–3
ATLQ4 4:151079Touchdown20–10
MINQ4 1:2800End of half20–10

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Teddy Bridgewater20/2817401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson291585.42
Jerick McKinnon5336.60
Matt Asiata133.00
Teddy Bridgewater4-3-0.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kyle Rudolph710530
Stefon Diggs44310
Adrian Peterson24290
Rhett Ellison12230
Matt Asiata33170
Jarius Wright22130

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan22/3123012

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tevin Coleman181106.10
Terron Ward571.40
Matt Ryan1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jacob Tamme56690
Roddy White68600
Julio Jones57560
Justin Hardy22210
Nick Williams34161
Terron Ward1280
Tevin Coleman0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +22.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.1%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.75
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.74