1999 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Drew Bledsoe

30·28

Jets

New York

QB Vinny Testaverde

Giants Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 73°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

NYJ -7

Total

44.5

Model margin

+4.2est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

4.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapJets
  • -0.107EPA / play-0.030
  • 37.4%Success rate38.9%
  • -0.062EPA / dropback+0.047
  • -0.179EPA / rush-0.130
  • 7.8%Explosive rate7.9%
  • 35.1%Third-down rate34.6%
  • 45.4%Red-zone TD rate40.9%
  • 1.19Points / drive1.28
  • 3.1%Turnover rate1.9%
  • -0.083EPA / play allowed-0.034

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 43–14 since 1999

NE have won 4 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NYJ are 23-32-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6NYJ @ NE19–26NE
2025 · W17NE @ NYJ42–10NE
2025 · W11NYJ @ NE14–27NE
2024 · W8NYJ @ NE22–25NE
2024 · W3NE @ NYJ3–24NYJ
2023 · W18NYJ @ NE17–3NYJ
2023 · W3NE @ NYJ15–10NE
2022 · W11NYJ @ NE3–10NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–NYJ
NEQ1 15:001077Field goal3–0
NYJQ1 8:551281Touchdown3–7
NEQ1 2:10518Punt3–7
NYJQ1 0:00936Turnover3–7
NEQ2 10:46364Touchdown10–7
NYJQ2 9:11549Touchdown10–14
NEQ2 6:49415Punt10–14
NYJQ2 5:12754Punt10–14
NEQ2 1:1849Safety10–16
NYJQ2 0:0600End of half10–16
NYJQ3 15:003-3Opp touchdown17–16
NEQ3 13:2700Opp touchdown17–16
NYJQ3 13:2730Punt17–16
NEQ3 12:56331Touchdown24–16
NYJQ3 11:2934Punt24–16
NEQ3 9:31658Field goal27–16
NYJQ3 5:55570Touchdown27–22
NEQ3 3:39534Turnover27–22
NYJQ3 1:071037Turnover on downs27–22
NEQ4 12:4636Punt27–22
NYJQ4 11:26210Turnover27–22
NEQ4 10:47318Opp touchdown27–28
NYJQ4 9:3400Opp touchdown27–28
NEQ4 9:34417Punt27–28
NYJQ4 6:47725Turnover27–28
NEQ4 3:30950Field goal30–28
NYJQ4 0:0310End of half30–28

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Bledsoe21/3034011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Terry Allen15543.61
Kevin Faulk10171.70
Drew Bledsoe1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry Glenn771130
Shawn Jefferson46670
Tony Simmons12581
Ben Coates34510
Troy Brown25330
Rod Rutledge1190
Kevin Faulk1280
Lamont Warren1260
Terry Allen11-50

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Vinny Testaverde10/159611
Rick Mirer4/112802

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Curtis Martin19804.20
Leon Johnson122.00
Keyshawn Johnson100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keyshawn Johnson8141941
Dedric Ward58410
Curtis Martin45170
Fred Baxter1171
Eric Green1230
Quinn Early0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.7%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

4.88%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.2%

Expected total

42.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.61
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.17