Closing spread
NYJ -7
Total
44.5
Model margin
+4.2est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.107EPA / play-0.030
- 37.4%Success rate38.9%
- -0.062EPA / dropback+0.047
- -0.179EPA / rush-0.130
- 7.8%Explosive rate7.9%
- 35.1%Third-down rate34.6%
- 45.4%Red-zone TD rate40.9%
- 1.19Points / drive1.28
- 3.1%Turnover rate1.9%
- -0.083EPA / play allowed-0.034
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 42–14 since 1999
NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NYJ are 22-32-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 21/30 | 340 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Allen | 15 | 54 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Kevin Faulk | 10 | 17 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Glenn | 7 | 7 | 113 | 0 |
| Shawn Jefferson | 4 | 6 | 67 | 0 |
| Tony Simmons | 1 | 2 | 58 | 1 |
| Ben Coates | 3 | 4 | 51 | 0 |
| Troy Brown | 2 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Rod Rutledge | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Lamont Warren | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Terry Allen | 1 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny Testaverde | 10/15 | 96 | 1 | 1 |
| Rick Mirer | 4/11 | 28 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 19 | 80 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Leon Johnson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Keyshawn Johnson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyshawn Johnson | 8 | 14 | 194 | 1 |
| Dedric Ward | 5 | 8 | 41 | 0 |
| Curtis Martin | 4 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Fred Baxter | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| Eric Green | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Quinn Early | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
4.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.2%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.61
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.17