2026 · Week 6 · Division

Final

Jets

New York

QB Geno Smith

19·26

Patriots

New England

QB Drake Maye

Gillette Stadium · outdoors

Closing spread

NE -7.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+4.2est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapPatriots
  • +0.011EPA / play+0.052
  • 44.6%Success rate45.0%
  • +0.118EPA / dropback+0.215
  • -0.148EPA / rush-0.200
  • 9.3%Explosive rate8.4%
  • +5.33CPOE+7.12
  • 37.1%Third-down rate40.8%
  • 57.8%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
  • 1.91Points / drive2.06
  • 1.2%Turnover rate3.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 43–14 since 1999

NE have won 4 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NE are 32-23-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17NE @ NYJ42–10NE
2025 · W11NYJ @ NE14–27NE
2024 · W8NYJ @ NE22–25NE
2024 · W3NE @ NYJ3–24NYJ
2023 · W18NYJ @ NE17–3NYJ
2023 · W3NE @ NYJ15–10NE
2022 · W11NYJ @ NE3–10NE
2022 · W8NE @ NYJ22–17NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–NE
NYJQ1 15:001358Field goal3–0
NEQ1 8:1737Punt3–0
NYJQ1 6:403-16Punt3–0
NEQ1 4:22242Touchdown3–7
NYJQ1 4:10851Turnover on downs3–7
NEQ2 14:16614Punt3–7
NYJQ2 11:35858Turnover on downs3–7
NEQ2 6:571147Field goal3–10
NYJQ2 1:4636Punt3–10
NEQ2 1:23761Touchdown3–17
NYJQ2 0:1400End of half3–17
NEQ3 15:00733Turnover on downs3–17
NYJQ3 11:48360Touchdown10–17
NEQ3 10:24418Turnover10–17
NYJQ3 8:10518Field goal13–17
NEQ3 4:461263Touchdown13–23
NYJQ4 14:10417Turnover13–23
NEQ4 12:23343Turnover13–23
NYJQ4 10:58833Field goal16–23
NEQ4 7:201256Field goal16–26
NYJQ4 1:12640Field goal19–26
NEQ4 0:3200End of half19–26

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith20/3025211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Braelon Allen17784.60
Isaiah Davis7162.30
Isaiah Williams144.00
Geno Smith2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Omar Cooper Jr.671031
Garrett Wilson46440
Mason Taylor46330
Braelon Allen22260
Tim Patrick13150
Kenyon Sadiq13120
Isaiah Davis11100
Jelani Woods1190

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drake Maye18/3223530

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Corey Kiner11575.20
Rhamondre Stevenson14362.60
TreVeyon Henderson7314.40
Drake Maye4246.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeMario Douglas78861
Hunter Henry45481
Romeo Doubs11421
A.J. Brown310270
Kyle Williams11120
Eli Raridon13110
TreVeyon Henderson1190
Efton Chism III0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.7%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.1%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.93
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.15