Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-4.2est.
NE perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Jetsedge mapPatriots
- +0.126EPA / play-0.092
- 48.4%Success rate40.8%
- +0.338EPA / dropback+0.127
- -0.038EPA / rush-0.451
- 10.9%Explosive rate1.4%
- +12.84CPOE+5.97
- 18.2%Third-down rate31.3%
- 66.7%Red-zone TD rate50.0%
- 2.08Points / drive1.11
- 0.0%Turnover rate4.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 42–14 since 1999
NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NE are 32-22-2 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-6.40
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-4.18