2024 · Week 3 · Division

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Jacoby Brissett

3·24

Jets

New York

QB Aaron Rodgers

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 75°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

NYJ -6.5

Total

39

Model margin

+4.1est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapJets
  • -0.081EPA / play-0.001
  • 42.5%Success rate43.0%
  • -0.020EPA / dropback+0.053
  • -0.187EPA / rush-0.108
  • 7.0%Explosive rate8.8%
  • +1.54CPOE-1.89
  • 35.0%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 54.2%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
  • 1.51Points / drive1.85
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 43–14 since 1999

NE have won 4 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NYJ are 23-32-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6NYJ @ NE19–26NE
2025 · W17NE @ NYJ42–10NE
2025 · W11NYJ @ NE14–27NE
2024 · W8NYJ @ NE22–25NE
2023 · W18NYJ @ NE17–3NYJ
2023 · W3NE @ NYJ15–10NE
2022 · W11NYJ @ NE3–10NE
2022 · W8NE @ NYJ22–17NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:00837Punt0–0
NEQ1 10:0631Punt0–0
NYJQ1 8:34858Touchdown0–7
NEQ1 4:21611Punt0–7
NYJQ1 1:191498Touchdown0–14
NEQ2 8:32916Field goal3–14
NYJQ2 3:561259Missed field goal3–14
NEQ2 0:07212End of half3–14
NEQ3 15:0036Punt3–14
NYJQ3 13:281166Touchdown3–21
NEQ3 6:18735Punt3–21
NYJQ3 3:43839Punt3–21
NEQ4 14:1114Turnover3–21
NYJQ4 14:02628Field goal3–24
NEQ4 10:1658Punt3–24
NYJQ4 8:17615Punt3–24
NEQ4 4:241646End of half3–24

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jacoby Brissett12/189800
Drake Maye4/82200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Antonio Gibson5295.80
Rhamondre Stevenson6233.80
Drake Maye2126.00
DeMario Douglas199.00
JaMycal Hasty155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeMario Douglas79690
Austin Hooper14190
Ja'Lynn Polk22130
Hunter Henry2390
Antonio Gibson3380
Kayshon Boutte1220
Tyquan Thornton0100

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers27/3528120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Braelon Allen11555.00
Breece Hall16543.41
Aaron Rodgers3186.00
Isaiah Davis362.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Conklin56930
Allen Lazard33481
Mike Williams34340
Garrett Wilson59331
Breece Hall45290
Xavier Gipson22160
Jeremy Ruckert22150
Braelon Allen33130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.7%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

4.88%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.0%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.38
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.08