Closing spread
NYJ -6.5
Total
39
Model margin
+4.1est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.081EPA / play-0.001
- 42.5%Success rate43.0%
- -0.020EPA / dropback+0.053
- -0.187EPA / rush-0.108
- 7.0%Explosive rate8.8%
- +1.54CPOE-1.89
- 35.0%Third-down rate39.7%
- 54.2%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
- 1.51Points / drive1.85
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 42–14 since 1999
NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NYJ are 22-32-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 12/18 | 98 | 0 | 0 |
| Drake Maye | 4/8 | 22 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Gibson | 5 | 29 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Drake Maye | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| DeMario Douglas | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| JaMycal Hasty | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMario Douglas | 7 | 9 | 69 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 1 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Ja'Lynn Polk | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Kayshon Boutte | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Tyquan Thornton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 27/35 | 281 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braelon Allen | 11 | 55 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Breece Hall | 16 | 54 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Davis | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Conklin | 5 | 6 | 93 | 0 |
| Allen Lazard | 3 | 3 | 48 | 1 |
| Mike Williams | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Garrett Wilson | 5 | 9 | 33 | 1 |
| Breece Hall | 4 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Xavier Gipson | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Braelon Allen | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
4.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.0%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.38
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+1.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.08