2024 · Week 8 · Division

Final

Jets

New York

QB Aaron Rodgers

22·25

Patriots

New England

QB Drake Maye

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 53°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

NYJ -7

Total

41

Model margin

+0.3est.

NE perspective

Push chance

4.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapPatriots
  • -0.001EPA / play-0.081
  • 43.0%Success rate42.5%
  • +0.053EPA / dropback-0.020
  • -0.108EPA / rush-0.187
  • 8.8%Explosive rate7.0%
  • -1.89CPOE+1.54
  • 39.7%Third-down rate35.0%
  • 57.9%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
  • 1.85Points / drive1.51
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 43–14 since 1999

NE have won 4 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NE are 32-23-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6NYJ @ NE19–26NE
2025 · W17NE @ NYJ42–10NE
2025 · W11NYJ @ NE14–27NE
2024 · W3NE @ NYJ3–24NYJ
2023 · W18NYJ @ NE17–3NYJ
2023 · W3NE @ NYJ15–10NE
2022 · W11NYJ @ NE3–10NE
2022 · W8NE @ NYJ22–17NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–NE
NEQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
NYJQ1 13:2937Punt0–0
NEQ1 11:461167Touchdown0–7
NYJQ1 5:181035Touchdown6–7
NEQ1 1:23611Punt6–7
NYJQ2 13:45855Touchdown13–7
NEQ2 9:0635Punt13–7
NYJQ2 6:531050Punt13–7
NEQ2 1:5139End of half13–7
NYJQ3 15:0036Punt13–7
NEQ3 13:10526Touchdown13–14
NYJQ3 10:55659Field goal16–14
NEQ3 7:5476Punt16–14
NYJQ3 3:40417Punt16–14
NEQ3 1:4633Punt16–14
NYJQ3 0:10521Missed field goal16–14
NEQ4 12:391346Field goal16–17
NYJQ4 7:341070Touchdown22–17
NEQ4 2:571270Touchdown22–25
NYJQ4 0:22216End of half22–25

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers17/2823320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Breece Hall16805.00
Braelon Allen12322.71

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Garrett Wilson581130
Davante Adams46540
Tyler Conklin34421
Jeremy Ruckert33140
Breece Hall1390
Xavier Gipson1111

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jacoby Brissett15/2413200
Drake Maye3/62300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rhamondre Stevenson20482.42
Drake Maye34615.31
Jacoby Brissett3113.70
Antonio Gibson571.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kayshon Boutte36460
Hunter Henry56450
Tyquan Thornton23200
Rhamondre Stevenson33170
Austin Hooper34150
DeMario Douglas23120
Kendrick Bourne0300
K.J. Osborn0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -72.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

4.36%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.9%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.38
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.33