Closing spread
NYJ -7
Total
41
Model margin
+0.3est.
NE perspective
Push chance
4.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.001EPA / play-0.081
- 43.0%Success rate42.5%
- +0.053EPA / dropback-0.020
- -0.108EPA / rush-0.187
- 8.8%Explosive rate7.0%
- -1.89CPOE+1.54
- 39.7%Third-down rate35.0%
- 57.9%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
- 1.85Points / drive1.51
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 42–14 since 1999
NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NE are 32-22-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 17/28 | 233 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 16 | 80 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Braelon Allen | 12 | 32 | 2.7 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | 5 | 8 | 113 | 0 |
| Davante Adams | 4 | 6 | 54 | 0 |
| Tyler Conklin | 3 | 4 | 42 | 1 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Breece Hall | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Xavier Gipson | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 15/24 | 132 | 0 | 0 |
| Drake Maye | 3/6 | 23 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 20 | 48 | 2.4 | 2 |
| Drake Maye | 3 | 46 | 15.3 | 1 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kayshon Boutte | 3 | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 5 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Tyquan Thornton | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| DeMario Douglas | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| K.J. Osborn | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
4.36%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.9%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.38
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.33