2023 · Week 3 · Division

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Mac Jones

15·10

Jets

New York

QB Zach Wilson

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 64°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

NE -2.5

Total

35.5

Model margin

+2.5est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapJets
  • -0.189EPA / play-0.230
  • 38.9%Success rate35.6%
  • -0.226EPA / dropback-0.250
  • -0.128EPA / rush-0.191
  • 5.5%Explosive rate6.2%
  • -3.39CPOE-5.18
  • 30.8%Third-down rate25.5%
  • 52.2%Red-zone TD rate39.2%
  • 1.00Points / drive1.01
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 43–14 since 1999

NE have won 4 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NYJ are 23-32-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6NYJ @ NE19–26NE
2025 · W17NE @ NYJ42–10NE
2025 · W11NYJ @ NE14–27NE
2024 · W8NYJ @ NE22–25NE
2024 · W3NE @ NYJ3–24NYJ
2023 · W18NYJ @ NE17–3NYJ
2022 · W11NYJ @ NE3–10NE
2022 · W8NE @ NYJ22–17NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:003-5Punt0–0
NEQ1 13:18629Field goal3–0
NYJQ1 10:41610Punt3–0
NEQ1 7:05419Punt3–0
NYJQ1 5:0036Punt3–0
NEQ1 3:02837Missed field goal3–0
NYJQ2 14:513-12Punt3–0
NEQ2 13:47478Touchdown10–0
NYJQ2 11:3837Punt10–0
NEQ2 9:56617Punt10–0
NYJQ2 7:29933Field goal10–3
NEQ2 1:21736Missed field goal10–3
NEQ3 15:00942Field goal13–3
NYJQ3 10:26518Punt13–3
NEQ3 7:26412Punt13–3
NYJQ3 4:3433Punt13–3
NEQ3 2:57617Punt13–3
NYJQ3 0:0731Punt13–3
NEQ4 14:13632Punt13–3
NYJQ4 10:461484Touchdown13–10
NEQ4 5:24525Punt13–10
NYJQ4 2:444-5Safety15–10
NEQ4 2:1937Punt15–10
NYJQ4 1:4342Turnover on downs15–10
NEQ4 1:1937Punt15–10
NYJQ4 0:16229End of half15–10

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mac Jones15/2920110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott16805.00
Rhamondre Stevenson19593.10
Mac Jones4133.30
DeMario Douglas155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Pharaoh Brown22711
Kendrick Bourne45460
DeVante Parker23190
Mike Gesicki11180
Hunter Henry25170
DeMario Douglas13150
Ezekiel Elliott1170
JuJu Smith-Schuster1350
Rhamondre Stevenson1430

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Zach Wilson18/3615700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dalvin Cook8182.30
Breece Hall12181.50
Nick Bawden111.01
Zach Wilson111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Garrett Wilson59480
Allen Lazard35390
Tyler Conklin35260
Randall Cobb12120
Dalvin Cook33110
C.J. Uzomah1190
Breece Hall1290
Michael Carter1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

2.03%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.7%

Expected total

39.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.75
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.45