Closing spread
NE -2.5
Total
35.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.189EPA / play-0.230
- 38.9%Success rate35.6%
- -0.226EPA / dropback-0.250
- -0.128EPA / rush-0.191
- 5.5%Explosive rate6.2%
- -3.39CPOE-5.18
- 30.8%Third-down rate25.5%
- 52.2%Red-zone TD rate39.2%
- 1.00Points / drive1.01
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 42–14 since 1999
NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NYJ are 22-32-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 15/29 | 201 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 16 | 80 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 19 | 59 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Mac Jones | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| DeMario Douglas | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pharaoh Brown | 2 | 2 | 71 | 1 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 4 | 5 | 46 | 0 |
| DeVante Parker | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 2 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| DeMario Douglas | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Wilson | 18/36 | 157 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 8 | 18 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Breece Hall | 12 | 18 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Nick Bawden | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
| Zach Wilson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | 5 | 9 | 48 | 0 |
| Allen Lazard | 3 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Tyler Conklin | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 3 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Breece Hall | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.03%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.7%
Expected total
39.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.75
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.45