Closing spread
NE -12.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+10.3est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Jets
- OutAzareye'h ThomasCBConcussion· DNP
- OutGarrett WilsonWRKnee· DNP
- QuestionableBraiden McGregorDEShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableHarrison PhillipsDTFoot· Limited
- QuestionableKhalil HerbertRBGroin· Full
- QuestionableWill McDonald IVDEQuadricep· Limited
- QuestionableXavier Newman-JohnsonGAnkle· Full
Patriots
- OutAustin HooperTEConcussion· DNP
- OutChristian EllissLBHip· DNP
- OutKayshon BoutteWRHamstring· Limited
- OutRhamondre StevensonRBToe· DNP
- QuestionableJoshua FarmerDTAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableTerrell JenningsRBKnee· Limited
Win probability
- Patriots
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.129EPA / play+0.154
- 40.5%Success rate48.2%
- -0.137EPA / dropback+0.308
- -0.117EPA / rush-0.089
- 6.5%Explosive rate10.5%
- -4.21CPOE+10.94
- 35.0%Third-down rate43.3%
- 50.0%Red-zone TD rate63.4%
- 1.54Points / drive2.47
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 43–14 since 1999
NE have won 4 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NE are 32-23-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NYJ–NE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ | Q1 15:00 | 14 | 72 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| NE | Q1 6:56 | 13 | 54 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| NYJ | Q2 14:16 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–7 |
| NE | Q2 12:43 | 8 | 83 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| NYJ | Q2 7:54 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–14 |
| NE | Q2 6:07 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 7–14 |
| NYJ | Q2 3:19 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–14 |
| NE | Q2 1:48 | 8 | 32 | Missed field goal | 7–14 |
| NE | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–14 |
| NYJ | Q3 14:07 | 6 | 29 | Punt | 7–14 |
| NE | Q3 11:16 | 6 | 69 | Touchdown | 7–21 |
| NYJ | Q3 7:46 | 9 | 65 | Touchdown | 14–21 |
| NE | Q3 3:10 | 11 | 51 | Field goal | 14–24 |
| NYJ | Q4 12:06 | 6 | 8 | Punt | 14–24 |
| NE | Q4 9:08 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 14–24 |
| NYJ | Q4 7:34 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 14–24 |
| NE | Q4 7:29 | 3 | 3 | Field goal | 14–27 |
| NYJ | Q4 6:36 | 12 | 50 | Turnover on downs | 14–27 |
| NE | Q4 1:57 | 3 | 12 | End of half | 14–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 15/26 | 116 | 1 | 0 |
| Isaiah Williams | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 11 | 67 | 6.1 | 1 |
| Breece Hall | 14 | 58 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Isaiah Davis | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Isaiah Williams | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Metchie III | 3 | 3 | 45 | 1 |
| Mason Taylor | 4 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 4 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Adonai Mitchell | 1 | 6 | 10 | 0 |
| Breece Hall | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Isaiah Williams | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Justin Fields | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 25/34 | 281 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TreVeyon Henderson | 19 | 62 | 3.3 | 2 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Drake Maye | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
| DeMario Douglas | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 9 | 11 | 105 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 4 | 5 | 64 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 4 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| DeMario Douglas | 3 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 5 | 5 | 31 | 1 |
| Kyle Williams | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
75.1%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+9.18
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.60
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+10.28