Closing spread
NE -12.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+10.3est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.129EPA / play+0.154
- 40.5%Success rate48.2%
- -0.137EPA / dropback+0.308
- -0.117EPA / rush-0.089
- 6.5%Explosive rate10.5%
- -4.21CPOE+10.94
- 35.0%Third-down rate43.3%
- 50.0%Red-zone TD rate63.4%
- 1.54Points / drive2.47
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 42–14 since 1999
NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NE are 32-22-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 15/26 | 116 | 1 | 0 |
| Isaiah Williams | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 11 | 67 | 6.1 | 1 |
| Breece Hall | 14 | 58 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Isaiah Davis | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Isaiah Williams | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Metchie III | 3 | 3 | 45 | 1 |
| Mason Taylor | 4 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 4 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Adonai Mitchell | 1 | 6 | 10 | 0 |
| Breece Hall | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Isaiah Williams | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Justin Fields | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 25/34 | 281 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TreVeyon Henderson | 19 | 62 | 3.3 | 2 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Drake Maye | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
| DeMario Douglas | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 9 | 11 | 105 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 4 | 5 | 64 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 4 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| DeMario Douglas | 3 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 5 | 5 | 31 | 1 |
| Kyle Williams | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
75.1%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+9.18
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.60
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+10.28