2023 · Week 18 · Division

Final

Jets

New York

QB Trevor Siemian

17·3

Patriots

New England

QB Bailey Zappe

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 33°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

NE -2.5

Total

28.5

Model margin

-2.3est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapPatriots
  • -0.230EPA / play-0.189
  • 35.6%Success rate38.9%
  • -0.250EPA / dropback-0.226
  • -0.191EPA / rush-0.128
  • 6.2%Explosive rate5.5%
  • -5.18CPOE-3.39
  • 25.5%Third-down rate30.8%
  • 39.2%Red-zone TD rate52.2%
  • 1.01Points / drive1.00
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 43–14 since 1999

NE have won 4 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NE are 32-23-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6NYJ @ NE19–26NE
2025 · W17NE @ NYJ42–10NE
2025 · W11NYJ @ NE14–27NE
2024 · W8NYJ @ NE22–25NE
2024 · W3NE @ NYJ3–24NYJ
2023 · W3NE @ NYJ15–10NE
2022 · W11NYJ @ NE3–10NE
2022 · W8NE @ NYJ22–17NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–NE
NEQ1 15:0032Punt0–0
NYJQ1 14:0434Punt0–0
NEQ1 12:273-12Punt0–0
NYJQ1 10:3032Punt0–0
NEQ1 8:4532Punt0–0
NYJQ1 7:20935Field goal3–0
NEQ1 2:0431Punt3–0
NYJQ1 0:4732Punt3–0
NEQ2 14:41965Field goal3–3
NYJQ2 9:32756Field goal6–3
NEQ2 6:0734Punt6–3
NYJQ2 4:40933Missed field goal6–3
NEQ2 0:2147Turnover on downs6–3
NYJQ3 15:0037Punt6–3
NEQ3 13:11513Punt6–3
NYJQ3 10:2631Punt6–3
NEQ3 8:43418Punt6–3
NYJQ3 7:01720Punt6–3
NEQ3 3:023-4Punt6–3
NYJQ3 1:2631Punt6–3
NEQ4 14:47526Turnover on downs6–3
NYJQ4 12:17730Field goal9–3
NEQ4 8:083-7Punt9–3
NYJQ4 5:5846Turnover on downs9–3
NEQ4 3:372-16Turnover9–3
NEQ4 2:4421Turnover9–3
NYJQ4 2:03253Touchdown17–3
NEQ4 1:47619Turnover on downs17–3
NYJQ4 0:1814End of half17–3

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Siemian8/207000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Breece Hall371784.81
Israel Abanikanda362.00
Trevor Siemian210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Garrett Wilson25340
Tyler Conklin23160
Breece Hall22120
Randall Cobb1140
Xavier Gipson1540
Irvin Charles0100
Jason Brownlee0100

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bailey Zappe12/308802

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott13544.20
Jalen Reagor11717.00
Bailey Zappe3134.30
Kevin Harris341.30
DeMario Douglas100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jalen Reagor15330
Ezekiel Elliott57270
DeMario Douglas26130
DeVante Parker1460
Mike Gesicki1350
Kevin Harris1140
Pharaoh Brown1300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

7.02%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

42.9%

Expected total

39.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.75
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.02
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin-2.31