Closing spread
NE -2.5
Total
28.5
Model margin
-2.3est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.230EPA / play-0.189
- 35.6%Success rate38.9%
- -0.250EPA / dropback-0.226
- -0.191EPA / rush-0.128
- 6.2%Explosive rate5.5%
- -5.18CPOE-3.39
- 25.5%Third-down rate30.8%
- 39.2%Red-zone TD rate52.2%
- 1.01Points / drive1.00
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 42–14 since 1999
NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NE are 32-22-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Siemian | 8/20 | 70 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 37 | 178 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Israel Abanikanda | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Trevor Siemian | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | 2 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Tyler Conklin | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Breece Hall | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Xavier Gipson | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0 |
| Irvin Charles | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason Brownlee | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Zappe | 12/30 | 88 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 13 | 54 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Jalen Reagor | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Bailey Zappe | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Kevin Harris | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| DeMario Douglas | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Reagor | 1 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 5 | 7 | 27 | 0 |
| DeMario Douglas | 2 | 6 | 13 | 0 |
| DeVante Parker | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Kevin Harris | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Pharaoh Brown | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
7.02%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.9%
Expected total
39.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.75
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-3.02
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-2.31