2022 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Jets

New York

QB Zach Wilson

3·10

Patriots

New England

QB Mac Jones

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 42°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

NE -3.5

Total

38.5

Model margin

+3.6est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapPatriots
  • -0.086EPA / play-0.047
  • 39.1%Success rate41.1%
  • -0.081EPA / dropback-0.026
  • -0.093EPA / rush-0.082
  • 8.2%Explosive rate10.3%
  • -4.97CPOE+0.93
  • 34.3%Third-down rate35.3%
  • 39.8%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
  • 1.41Points / drive1.54
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 43–14 since 1999

NE have won 4 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NE are 32-23-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6NYJ @ NE19–26NE
2025 · W17NE @ NYJ42–10NE
2025 · W11NYJ @ NE14–27NE
2024 · W8NYJ @ NE22–25NE
2024 · W3NE @ NYJ3–24NYJ
2023 · W18NYJ @ NE17–3NYJ
2023 · W3NE @ NYJ15–10NE
2022 · W8NE @ NYJ22–17NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–NE
NEQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
NYJQ1 13:0736Punt0–0
NEQ1 11:4038Punt0–0
NYJQ1 10:11518Punt0–0
NEQ1 7:431479Field goal0–3
NYJQ2 14:57846Field goal3–3
NEQ2 9:381154Missed field goal3–3
NYJQ2 2:49623Punt3–3
NEQ2 0:4536Punt3–3
NYJQ2 0:1918End of half3–3
NYJQ3 15:003-6Punt3–3
NEQ3 13:05757Missed field goal3–3
NYJQ3 9:0832Punt3–3
NEQ3 7:32534Punt3–3
NYJQ3 4:1037Punt3–3
NEQ3 2:46520Turnover on downs3–3
NYJQ3 0:063-11Punt3–3
NEQ4 14:09625Punt3–3
NYJQ4 10:5230Punt3–3
NEQ4 9:0133Punt3–3
NYJQ4 6:4063Punt3–3
NEQ4 3:2237Punt3–3
NYJQ4 1:5267Opp touchdown3–10
NYJQ4 0:0500End of half3–10

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Zach Wilson9/227700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Zach Wilson3268.70
Michael Carter8192.40
James Robinson7101.40
Ty Johnson441.00
Garrett Wilson100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Denzel Mims26350
Elijah Moore24170
Tyler Conklin23150
Garrett Wilson23120
Braxton Berrios0100
Ty Johnson0100
Michael Carter12-20

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mac Jones23/2724600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Damien Harris8658.10
Rhamondre Stevenson15261.70
Jonnu Smith155.00
Mac Jones231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rhamondre Stevenson66560
Jakobi Meyers46520
Jonnu Smith44400
Damien Harris22280
Hunter Henry11200
DeVante Parker22190
Nelson Agholor23180
Kendrick Bourne1180
Tyquan Thornton1250

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.6%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.86
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.57