Closing spread
NE -3.5
Total
38.5
Model margin
+3.6est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.086EPA / play-0.047
- 39.1%Success rate41.1%
- -0.081EPA / dropback-0.026
- -0.093EPA / rush-0.082
- 8.2%Explosive rate10.3%
- -4.97CPOE+0.93
- 34.3%Third-down rate35.3%
- 39.8%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
- 1.41Points / drive1.54
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 42–14 since 1999
NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NE are 32-22-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Wilson | 9/22 | 77 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Wilson | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 8 | 19 | 2.4 | 0 |
| James Robinson | 7 | 10 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Garrett Wilson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denzel Mims | 2 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Tyler Conklin | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Garrett Wilson | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Braxton Berrios | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 23/27 | 246 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damien Harris | 8 | 65 | 8.1 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 15 | 26 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Mac Jones | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 6 | 6 | 56 | 0 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 4 | 6 | 52 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 4 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Damien Harris | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| DeVante Parker | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Tyquan Thornton | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.6%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.86
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.57