Closing spread
NE -12.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
-6.9est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.154EPA / play-0.129
- 48.2%Success rate40.5%
- +0.308EPA / dropback-0.137
- -0.089EPA / rush-0.117
- 10.5%Explosive rate6.5%
- +10.94CPOE-4.21
- 43.3%Third-down rate35.0%
- 63.4%Red-zone TD rate50.0%
- 2.47Points / drive1.54
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 42–14 since 1999
NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NYJ are 22-32-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 19/21 | 256 | 5 | 0 |
| Joshua Dobbs | 3/4 | 30 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TreVeyon Henderson | 19 | 82 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 8 | 47 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Drake Maye | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Joshua Dobbs | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 6 | 6 | 101 | 1 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 5 | 5 | 55 | 1 |
| Hunter Henry | 3 | 3 | 49 | 1 |
| Efton Chism III | 2 | 2 | 40 | 1 |
| Kyle Williams | 3 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 2 | 2 | 11 | 1 |
| DeMario Douglas | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Cook | 19/33 | 152 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 14 | 111 | 7.9 | 1 |
| Kene Nwangwu | 6 | 31 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Isaiah Davis | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Khalil Herbert | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Isaiah Williams | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Brady Cook | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Metchie III | 3 | 3 | 41 | 0 |
| Isaiah Williams | 4 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Adonai Mitchell | 3 | 9 | 22 | 0 |
| Stone Smartt | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Breece Hall | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Isaiah Davis | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Arian Smith | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Jelani Woods | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Tyler Johnson | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Khalil Herbert | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
1.37%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
31.2%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-9.18
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.60
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-6.87