1999 · Week 1
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 88°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
TB -5.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
+4.5est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.084EPA / play-0.149
- 38.6%Success rate35.1%
- -0.016EPA / dropback-0.110
- -0.207EPA / rush-0.193
- 6.4%Explosive rate7.7%
- 35.7%Third-down rate35.3%
- 50.7%Red-zone TD rate37.2%
- 1.14Points / drive1.03
- 2.8%Turnover rate3.3%
- -0.039EPA / play allowed-0.164
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 8–5 since 1999
TB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. TB are 3-8-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kent Graham | 12/24 | 91 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Bennett | 13 | 24 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Kent Graham | 6 | 2 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amani Toomer | 4 | 7 | 36 | 0 |
| Pete Mitchell | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Ike Hilliard | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Sean Bennett | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Joe Jurevicius | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Tiki Barber | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Howard Cross | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| David Patten | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Dilfer | 15/31 | 174 | 1 | 3 |
| Eric Zeier | 3/11 | 14 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 15 | 46 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Jacquez Green | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Trent Dilfer | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Rabih Abdullah | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bert Emanuel | 3 | 12 | 53 | 0 |
| Jacquez Green | 3 | 7 | 27 | 0 |
| Dave Moore | 2 | 3 | 27 | 1 |
| Warrick Dunn | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Karl Williams | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Reidel Anthony | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Darnell McDonald | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Patrick Hape | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
3.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.1%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.56
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.39
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.51