1999 · Week 1

Final

Giants

New York

QB Kent Graham

17·13

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Trent Dilfer

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 88°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

TB -5.5

Total

37.5

Model margin

+4.5est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.084EPA / play-0.149
  • 38.6%Success rate35.1%
  • -0.016EPA / dropback-0.110
  • -0.207EPA / rush-0.193
  • 6.4%Explosive rate7.7%
  • 35.7%Third-down rate35.3%
  • 50.7%Red-zone TD rate37.2%
  • 1.14Points / drive1.03
  • 2.8%Turnover rate3.3%
  • -0.039EPA / play allowed-0.164

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 8–5 since 1999

TB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. TB are 3-8-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W12TB @ NYG30–7TB
2021 · W11NYG @ TB10–30TB
2020 · W8TB @ NYG25–23TB
2019 · W3NYG @ TB32–31NYG
2018 · W11TB @ NYG35–38NYG
2017 · W4NYG @ TB23–25TB
2015 · W9NYG @ TB32–18NYG
2012 · W2TB @ NYG34–41NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–TB
NYGQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
TBQ1 12:5038Opp touchdown7–0
NYGQ1 11:3700Opp touchdown7–0
TBQ1 11:3730Punt7–0
NYGQ1 9:3232Punt7–0
TBQ1 7:541471Field goal7–3
NYGQ2 14:1530Punt7–3
TBQ2 13:44824Punt7–3
NYGQ2 10:2248Punt7–3
TBQ2 7:4733Punt7–3
NYGQ2 6:03734Punt7–3
TBQ2 1:42554Touchdown7–10
NYGQ2 0:1600End of half7–10
TBQ3 15:00623Punt7–10
NYGQ3 11:55933Punt7–10
TBQ3 7:0733Punt7–10
NYGQ3 5:2132Punt7–10
TBQ3 4:1931Opp touchdown14–10
NYGQ3 3:3100Opp touchdown14–10
TBQ3 3:31642Field goal14–13
NYGQ3 0:1545Punt14–13
TBQ4 13:5910Turnover14–13
NYGQ4 13:4636Field goal17–13
TBQ4 12:1038Turnover17–13
NYGQ4 10:233-6Punt17–13
TBQ4 9:0535Punt17–13
NYGQ4 7:5347Punt17–13
TBQ4 6:1634Punt17–13
NYGQ4 4:4839Punt17–13
TBQ4 3:0330Punt17–13
NYGQ4 2:3231Punt17–13
TBQ4 1:4148Turnover17–13
NYGQ4 1:1700End of half17–13

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kent Graham12/249100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Sean Bennett13241.80
Kent Graham620.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amani Toomer47360
Pete Mitchell34250
Ike Hilliard23180
Sean Bennett1270
Joe Jurevicius1340
Tiki Barber0100
Howard Cross0100
David Patten0100

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trent Dilfer15/3117413
Eric Zeier3/111401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Warrick Dunn15463.10
Jacquez Green11515.00
Trent Dilfer144.00
Rabih Abdullah100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Bert Emanuel312530
Jacquez Green37270
Dave Moore23271
Warrick Dunn35260
Karl Williams23140
Reidel Anthony24100
Darnell McDonald1160
Patrick Hape0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.53.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

3.18%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.1%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.56
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.39
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.51