2012 · Week 2
Final
MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 73°F · wind 1mph
Closing spread
NYG -9
Total
43.5
Model margin
+4.9est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Giants
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.018EPA / play+0.086
- 41.0%Success rate46.8%
- +0.053EPA / dropback+0.142
- -0.038EPA / rush-0.000
- 9.8%Explosive rate10.8%
- -4.01CPOE+0.81
- 35.9%Third-down rate41.8%
- 63.4%Red-zone TD rate57.2%
- 1.74Points / drive2.27
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 8–5 since 1999
TB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. NYG are 8-3-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Freeman | 15/28 | 243 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Martin | 20 | 66 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Preston Parker | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| D.J. Ware | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vincent Jackson | 5 | 10 | 128 | 1 |
| Mike Williams | 3 | 5 | 59 | 1 |
| Dallas Clark | 4 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Sammie Stroughter | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| D.J. Ware | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Preston Parker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Doug Martin | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 31/51 | 510 | 3 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Brown | 13 | 71 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
| David Wilson | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hakeem Nicks | 10 | 15 | 199 | 1 |
| Victor Cruz | 11 | 17 | 179 | 1 |
| Martellus Bennett | 5 | 10 | 72 | 1 |
| Ramses Barden | 1 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Andre Brown | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Domenik Hixon | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| David Wilson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
1.28%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.1%
Expected total
47.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.08
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.32
- Expected margin+4.89