2012 · Week 2

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Josh Freeman

34·41

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 73°F · wind 1mph

Closing spread

NYG -9

Total

43.5

Model margin

+4.9est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

1.3%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapGiants
  • +0.018EPA / play+0.086
  • 41.0%Success rate46.8%
  • +0.053EPA / dropback+0.142
  • -0.038EPA / rush-0.000
  • 9.8%Explosive rate10.8%
  • -4.01CPOE+0.81
  • 35.9%Third-down rate41.8%
  • 63.4%Red-zone TD rate57.2%
  • 1.74Points / drive2.27
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 8–5 since 1999

TB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. NYG are 8-3-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W12TB @ NYG30–7TB
2021 · W11NYG @ TB10–30TB
2020 · W8TB @ NYG25–23TB
2019 · W3NYG @ TB32–31NYG
2018 · W11TB @ NYG35–38NYG
2017 · W4NYG @ TB23–25TB
2015 · W9NYG @ TB32–18NYG
2009 · W3NYG @ TB24–0NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–NYG
NYGQ1 15:00551Field goal0–3
TBQ1 12:43660Field goal3–3
NYGQ1 8:421166Field goal3–6
TBQ1 2:54631Punt3–6
NYGQ2 14:5310Turnover3–6
TBQ2 14:44328Touchdown10–6
NYGQ2 13:48520Punt10–6
TBQ2 11:103-9Punt10–6
NYGQ2 9:09415Turnover10–6
TBQ2 7:06213Touchdown17–6
NYGQ2 6:191085Touchdown17–13
TBQ2 1:5431Punt17–13
NYGQ2 0:53541Opp touchdown24–13
NYGQ2 0:0800End of half24–13
TBQ3 15:00414Field goal27–13
NYGQ3 13:14416Punt27–13
TBQ3 10:46640Punt27–13
NYGQ3 6:191442Field goal27–16
TBQ3 0:3920Turnover27–16
NYGQ3 0:21830Field goal27–19
TBQ4 12:22626Punt27–19
NYGQ4 7:41388Touchdown27–27
TBQ4 6:4834Punt27–27
NYGQ4 5:43467Touchdown27–34
TBQ4 3:59580Touchdown34–34
NYGQ4 1:58485Touchdown34–41
TBQ4 0:31319Turnover34–41
NYGQ4 0:0500End of half34–41

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Freeman15/2824322

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Doug Martin20663.31
Preston Parker177.00
D.J. Ware166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Vincent Jackson5101281
Mike Williams35591
Dallas Clark45330
Sammie Stroughter12140
D.J. Ware1110
Preston Parker0100
Doug Martin0300

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning31/5151033

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Andre Brown13715.51
Ahmad Bradshaw5163.20
David Wilson362.00
Eli Manning3-2-0.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Hakeem Nicks10151991
Victor Cruz11171791
Martellus Bennett510721
Ramses Barden12240
Andre Brown22190
Domenik Hixon11120
David Wilson0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +96.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

1.28%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.1%

Expected total

47.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.08
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.32
  • Expected margin+4.89