2015 · Week 9

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

32·18

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jameis Winston

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

NYG -1.5

Total

49

Model margin

+3.0est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.025EPA / play+0.008
  • 44.0%Success rate44.4%
  • +0.106EPA / dropback+0.106
  • -0.119EPA / rush-0.141
  • 8.0%Explosive rate9.6%
  • -1.12CPOE-0.02
  • 37.1%Third-down rate41.4%
  • 58.4%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
  • 2.02Points / drive1.77
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 8–5 since 1999

TB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. TB are 3-8-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W12TB @ NYG30–7TB
2021 · W11NYG @ TB10–30TB
2020 · W8TB @ NYG25–23TB
2019 · W3NYG @ TB32–31NYG
2018 · W11TB @ NYG35–38NYG
2017 · W4NYG @ TB23–25TB
2012 · W2TB @ NYG34–41NYG
2009 · W3NYG @ TB24–0NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–TB
NYGQ1 15:0010Turnover0–0
TBQ1 14:5136Field goal0–3
NYGQ1 13:26948Field goal3–3
TBQ1 9:52470Field goal3–6
NYGQ1 8:041362Touchdown10–6
TBQ1 0:5331Turnover10–6
NYGQ2 14:54938Touchdown17–6
TBQ2 11:201050Missed field goal17–6
NYGQ2 6:58732Turnover on downs17–6
TBQ2 3:02748Field goal17–9
NYGQ2 0:0600End of half17–9
TBQ3 15:00522Turnover17–9
NYGQ3 12:3237Field goal20–9
TBQ3 11:491059Field goal20–12
NYGQ3 7:151247Turnover20–12
TBQ3 2:02510Punt20–12
NYGQ3 0:24513Punt20–12
TBQ4 11:36587Touchdown20–18
NYGQ4 9:25542Field goal23–18
TBQ4 7:18831Punt23–18
NYGQ4 4:57939Field goal26–18
TBQ4 0:232-1Opp touchdown32–18

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning26/4021322

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashad Jennings13483.70
Andre Williams7304.30
Orleans Darkwa6233.80
Shane Vereen6142.30
Eli Manning1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Odell Beckham Jr.9171050
Rueben Randle55401
Shane Vereen44291
Will Tye26190
Jerome Cunningham22100
Andre Williams1170
Myles White1130
Dwayne Harris1310
Rashad Jennings11-10

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston19/3624700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Charles Sims8789.80
Doug Martin11312.80
Jameis Winston3248.01
Bobby Rainey133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans8191500
Adam Humphries55550
Cameron Brate11170
Doug Martin24120
Charles Sims1240
Donteea Dye1440

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

2.08%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.0%

Expected total

46.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.49
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.97