2015 · Week 9
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 3mph
Closing spread
NYG -1.5
Total
49
Model margin
+3.0est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.025EPA / play+0.008
- 44.0%Success rate44.4%
- +0.106EPA / dropback+0.106
- -0.119EPA / rush-0.141
- 8.0%Explosive rate9.6%
- -1.12CPOE-0.02
- 37.1%Third-down rate41.4%
- 58.4%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
- 2.02Points / drive1.77
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 8–5 since 1999
TB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. TB are 3-8-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 26/40 | 213 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashad Jennings | 13 | 48 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Andre Williams | 7 | 30 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Orleans Darkwa | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 9 | 17 | 105 | 0 |
| Rueben Randle | 5 | 5 | 40 | 1 |
| Shane Vereen | 4 | 4 | 29 | 1 |
| Will Tye | 2 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Jerome Cunningham | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Andre Williams | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Myles White | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Dwayne Harris | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 19/36 | 247 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Sims | 8 | 78 | 9.8 | 0 |
| Doug Martin | 11 | 31 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 1 |
| Bobby Rainey | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 8 | 19 | 150 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 5 | 5 | 55 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Doug Martin | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Charles Sims | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Donteea Dye | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.0%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.49
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.97