2020 · Week 8

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Tom Brady

25·23

Giants

New York

QB Daniel Jones

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 39°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

TB -13

Total

47

Model margin

-2.6est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

1.6%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapGiants
  • +0.149EPA / play-0.057
  • 46.9%Success rate42.1%
  • +0.239EPA / dropback-0.051
  • -0.032EPA / rush-0.067
  • 9.6%Explosive rate7.5%
  • +3.10CPOE-2.04
  • 44.2%Third-down rate35.1%
  • 67.2%Red-zone TD rate51.7%
  • 2.68Points / drive1.57
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 8–5 since 1999

TB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. NYG are 8-3-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W12TB @ NYG30–7TB
2021 · W11NYG @ TB10–30TB
2019 · W3NYG @ TB32–31NYG
2018 · W11TB @ NYG35–38NYG
2017 · W4NYG @ TB23–25TB
2015 · W9NYG @ TB32–18NYG
2012 · W2TB @ NYG34–41NYG
2009 · W3NYG @ TB24–0NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–NYG
TBQ1 15:001057Field goal3–0
NYGQ1 9:41937Punt3–0
TBQ1 5:3825Turnover3–0
NYGQ1 4:5437Touchdown3–7
TBQ1 4:10521Punt3–7
NYGQ1 1:591350Punt3–7
TBQ2 10:321131Punt3–7
NYGQ2 4:591077Touchdown3–14
TBQ2 1:46753Field goal6–14
NYGQ2 0:0700End of half6–14
NYGQ3 15:0022Turnover6–14
TBQ3 14:03934Field goal9–14
NYGQ3 10:0037Punt9–14
TBQ3 8:36653Touchdown15–14
NYGQ3 6:001176Field goal15–17
TBQ3 0:153-8Punt15–17
NYGQ4 13:58523Turnover15–17
TBQ4 12:06767Touchdown22–17
NYGQ4 9:0234Punt22–17
TBQ4 6:57832Field goal25–17
NYGQ4 3:411375Touchdown25–23
TBQ4 0:2800End of half25–23

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady28/4027920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Leonard Fournette15523.50
Ronald Jones7233.30
Scott Miller177.00
Tom Brady1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans57551
Rob Gronkowski44411
Jaydon Mickens58360
Cameron Brate22350
Scott Miller36350
Tyler Johnson22350
Ronald Jones44230
Leonard Fournette36190
Tanner Hudson0100

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones25/4125622
Golden Tate1/11800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Wayne Gallman12443.71
Alfred Morris8283.50
Daniel Jones3206.70
Evan Engram199.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sterling Shepard810740
Evan Engram510610
Darius Slayton59560
Golden Tate23311
Wayne Gallman11180
Levine Toilolo1290
Dion Lewis2381
Kaden Smith1260

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -132.7%3.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

1.61%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

42.1%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.54
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin-2.60