2020 · Week 8
Final
MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 39°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
TB -13
Total
47
Model margin
-2.6est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
1.6%est.
Win probability
- Giants
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.149EPA / play-0.057
- 46.9%Success rate42.1%
- +0.239EPA / dropback-0.051
- -0.032EPA / rush-0.067
- 9.6%Explosive rate7.5%
- +3.10CPOE-2.04
- 44.2%Third-down rate35.1%
- 67.2%Red-zone TD rate51.7%
- 2.68Points / drive1.57
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 8–5 since 1999
TB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. NYG are 8-3-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 28/40 | 279 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | 15 | 52 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Ronald Jones | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Scott Miller | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 5 | 7 | 55 | 1 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 4 | 4 | 41 | 1 |
| Jaydon Mickens | 5 | 8 | 36 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 2 | 2 | 35 | 0 |
| Scott Miller | 3 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Tyler Johnson | 2 | 2 | 35 | 0 |
| Ronald Jones | 4 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 3 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Tanner Hudson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 25/41 | 256 | 2 | 2 |
| Golden Tate | 1/1 | 18 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne Gallman | 12 | 44 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Alfred Morris | 8 | 28 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Daniel Jones | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sterling Shepard | 8 | 10 | 74 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 5 | 10 | 61 | 0 |
| Darius Slayton | 5 | 9 | 56 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 2 | 3 | 31 | 1 |
| Wayne Gallman | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Levine Toilolo | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 2 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| Kaden Smith | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
1.61%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.1%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.54
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin-2.60