2019 · Week 3

Final

Giants

New York

QB Daniel Jones

32·31

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jameis Winston

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 88°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

TB -5

Total

48

Model margin

+4.7est.

TB perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.064EPA / play+0.000
  • 41.8%Success rate43.6%
  • -0.034EPA / dropback+0.084
  • -0.129EPA / rush-0.168
  • 8.9%Explosive rate10.0%
  • -1.92CPOE+0.42
  • 37.8%Third-down rate42.2%
  • 69.6%Red-zone TD rate71.0%
  • 1.56Points / drive1.86
  • 3.1%Turnover rate3.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 8–5 since 1999

TB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. TB are 3-8-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W12TB @ NYG30–7TB
2021 · W11NYG @ TB10–30TB
2020 · W8TB @ NYG25–23TB
2018 · W11TB @ NYG35–38NYG
2017 · W4NYG @ TB23–25TB
2015 · W9NYG @ TB32–18NYG
2012 · W2TB @ NYG34–41NYG
2009 · W3NYG @ TB24–0NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–TB
TBQ1 15:001075Touchdown0–6
NYGQ1 9:471057Field goal3–6
TBQ1 4:07975Touchdown3–12
NYGQ1 0:211370Touchdown10–12
TBQ2 9:58446Field goal10–15
NYGQ2 7:3530Punt10–15
TBQ2 6:01633Field goal10–18
NYGQ2 4:06416Turnover10–18
TBQ2 2:15436Touchdown10–25
NYGQ2 1:2639Punt10–25
TBQ2 0:36546Field goal10–28
NYGQ3 15:00175Touchdown18–28
TBQ3 14:48526Punt18–28
NYGQ3 12:11890Touchdown25–28
TBQ3 8:1430Punt25–28
NYGQ3 6:343-1Punt25–28
TBQ3 5:36833Punt25–28
NYGQ3 1:043-13Punt25–28
TBQ4 14:09619Turnover25–28
NYGQ4 11:1521Turnover25–28
TBQ4 10:27737Field goal25–31
NYGQ4 6:0035Punt25–31
TBQ4 4:2039Punt25–31
NYGQ4 3:16875Touchdown32–31
TBQ4 1:16464Missed field goal32–31

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones23/3633620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Daniel Jones4287.02
Sterling Shepard22110.50
Wayne Gallman5132.60
Saquon Barkley8101.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Evan Engram681131
Sterling Shepard791001
Darius Slayton35820
Saquon Barkley45270
Russell Shepard1560
Bennie Fowler1350
Rhett Ellison1130

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston23/3738031

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ronald Jones14805.70
Peyton Barber13483.70
Breshad Perriman11313.00
Jameis Winston430.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans8151903
O.J. Howard34660
Ronald Jones11410
Chris Godwin Jr.35400
Dare Ogunbowale33230
Cameron Brate2270
Peyton Barber2270
Breshad Perriman1260
Antony Auclair0100
Bobo Wilson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +53.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.5%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.70
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+4.68