2019 · Week 3
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 88°F · wind 11mph
Closing spread
TB -5
Total
48
Model margin
+4.7est.
TB perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.064EPA / play+0.000
- 41.8%Success rate43.6%
- -0.034EPA / dropback+0.084
- -0.129EPA / rush-0.168
- 8.9%Explosive rate10.0%
- -1.92CPOE+0.42
- 37.8%Third-down rate42.2%
- 69.6%Red-zone TD rate71.0%
- 1.56Points / drive1.86
- 3.1%Turnover rate3.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 8–5 since 1999
TB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. TB are 3-8-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 23/36 | 336 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 4 | 28 | 7.0 | 2 |
| Sterling Shepard | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
| Wayne Gallman | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 8 | 10 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram | 6 | 8 | 113 | 1 |
| Sterling Shepard | 7 | 9 | 100 | 1 |
| Darius Slayton | 3 | 5 | 82 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 4 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Russell Shepard | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
| Bennie Fowler | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 23/37 | 380 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronald Jones | 14 | 80 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 13 | 48 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Breshad Perriman | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 8 | 15 | 190 | 3 |
| O.J. Howard | 3 | 4 | 66 | 0 |
| Ronald Jones | 1 | 1 | 41 | 0 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 3 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Breshad Perriman | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Antony Auclair | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Bobo Wilson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.5%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.70
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+4.68