2018 · Week 11

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

35·38

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 42°F · wind 1mph

Closing spread

NYG -3

Total

54.5

Model margin

+1.0est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Giants

Nothing filed.

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapGiants
  • +0.045EPA / play+0.016
  • 44.9%Success rate39.9%
  • +0.165EPA / dropback+0.054
  • -0.229EPA / rush-0.054
  • 9.1%Explosive rate9.5%
  • +3.11CPOE+0.30
  • 46.7%Third-down rate36.5%
  • 64.3%Red-zone TD rate51.8%
  • 1.93Points / drive1.89
  • 3.2%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 8–5 since 1999

TB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. NYG are 8-3-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W12TB @ NYG30–7TB
2021 · W11NYG @ TB10–30TB
2020 · W8TB @ NYG25–23TB
2019 · W3NYG @ TB32–31NYG
2017 · W4NYG @ TB23–25TB
2015 · W9NYG @ TB32–18NYG
2012 · W2TB @ NYG34–41NYG
2009 · W3NYG @ TB24–0NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–NYG
NYGQ1 15:00663Touchdown0–7
TBQ1 11:421268Turnover on downs0–7
NYGQ1 5:131295Touchdown0–14
TBQ2 13:3748Punt0–14
NYGQ2 10:5730Punt0–14
TBQ2 8:51864Touchdown7–14
NYGQ2 4:56836Punt7–14
TBQ2 1:17731Turnover7–14
NYGQ2 0:2315End of half7–14
TBQ3 15:0021Opp touchdown7–21
TBQ3 14:13859Turnover7–21
NYGQ3 9:42427Field goal7–24
TBQ3 7:04971Touchdown14–24
NYGQ3 1:32771Touchdown14–31
TBQ4 13:04772Touchdown21–31
NYGQ4 9:473-7Punt21–31
TBQ4 7:33770Touchdown28–31
NYGQ4 5:11567Touchdown28–38
TBQ4 3:52666Touchdown35–38
NYGQ4 2:2233Punt35–38
TBQ4 0:2310Turnover35–38
NYGQ4 0:1300End of half35–38

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston12/1619921
Ryan Fitzpatrick13/2116703

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Peyton Barber181065.91
Jameis Winston5163.20
Jacquizz Rodgers3155.00
Ryan Fitzpatrick4143.51

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans671201
O.J. Howard56780
Adam Humphries35601
Chris Godwin Jr.33500
DeSean Jackson47380
Cameron Brate23160
Peyton Barber2240
Jacquizz Rodgers0300

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning17/1823120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley271425.32
Odell Beckham Jr.11111.00
Wayne Gallman2115.50
Eli Manning1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Odell Beckham Jr.44741
Evan Engram22660
Wayne Gallman22240
Sterling Shepard22220
Rhett Ellison11120
Bennie Fowler11100
Saquon Barkley23101
Corey Coleman1190

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

7.44%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.7%

Expected total

46.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.11
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.78
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+0.99