2018 · Week 11
Final
MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 42°F · wind 1mph
Closing spread
NYG -3
Total
54.5
Model margin
+1.0est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.045EPA / play+0.016
- 44.9%Success rate39.9%
- +0.165EPA / dropback+0.054
- -0.229EPA / rush-0.054
- 9.1%Explosive rate9.5%
- +3.11CPOE+0.30
- 46.7%Third-down rate36.5%
- 64.3%Red-zone TD rate51.8%
- 1.93Points / drive1.89
- 3.2%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 8–5 since 1999
TB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. NYG are 8-3-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 12/16 | 199 | 2 | 1 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 13/21 | 167 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Barber | 18 | 106 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Jameis Winston | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 6 | 7 | 120 | 1 |
| O.J. Howard | 5 | 6 | 78 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 3 | 5 | 60 | 1 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 3 | 3 | 50 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 4 | 7 | 38 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 17/18 | 231 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 27 | 142 | 5.3 | 2 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Wayne Gallman | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 4 | 4 | 74 | 1 |
| Evan Engram | 2 | 2 | 66 | 0 |
| Wayne Gallman | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Bennie Fowler | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 2 | 3 | 10 | 1 |
| Corey Coleman | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
7.44%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.7%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.11
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-0.78
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+0.99