2017 · Week 4

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

23·25

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jameis Winston

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 91°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

TB -2.5

Total

46

Model margin

+2.8est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.106EPA / play+0.004
  • 41.1%Success rate44.2%
  • -0.099EPA / dropback+0.090
  • -0.119EPA / rush-0.167
  • 6.2%Explosive rate6.5%
  • -3.91CPOE+3.38
  • 32.5%Third-down rate42.9%
  • 51.3%Red-zone TD rate57.7%
  • 1.19Points / drive1.79
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 8–5 since 1999

TB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. TB are 3-8-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W12TB @ NYG30–7TB
2021 · W11NYG @ TB10–30TB
2020 · W8TB @ NYG25–23TB
2019 · W3NYG @ TB32–31NYG
2018 · W11TB @ NYG35–38NYG
2015 · W9NYG @ TB32–18NYG
2012 · W2TB @ NYG34–41NYG
2009 · W3NYG @ TB24–0NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–TB
NYGQ1 15:003-2Punt0–0
TBQ1 13:0437Punt0–0
NYGQ1 11:0443Punt0–0
TBQ1 9:48456Touchdown0–7
NYGQ1 7:471141Turnover on downs0–7
TBQ1 3:45270Touchdown0–13
NYGQ1 3:00427Punt0–13
TBQ1 0:5737Punt0–13
NYGQ2 14:49411Punt0–13
TBQ2 13:28435Missed field goal0–13
NYGQ2 11:531052Field goal3–13
TBQ2 7:1732Punt3–13
NYGQ2 6:29762Touchdown10–13
TBQ2 3:171173Field goal10–16
NYGQ2 0:32422End of half10–16
TBQ3 15:00945Missed field goal10–16
NYGQ3 10:101156Touchdown17–16
TBQ3 4:193-9Punt17–16
NYGQ3 3:17830Missed field goal17–16
TBQ4 14:15832Turnover on downs17–16
NYGQ4 10:1937Punt17–16
TBQ4 9:25557Touchdown17–22
NYGQ4 7:441070Touchdown23–22
TBQ4 3:16662Field goal23–25

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning30/4928820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Wayne Gallman11423.80
Eli Manning3227.31
Shane Vereen5142.80
Paul Perkins9131.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Odell Beckham Jr.715900
Evan Engram611620
Sterling Shepard55540
Brandon Marshall610460
Shane Vereen12110
Rhett Ellison22111
Wayne Gallman2281
Paul Perkins1260

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston22/3833230

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jacquizz Rodgers16835.20
Charles Sims11414.00
Jameis Winston4123.00
Peyton Barber221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cameron Brate46801
Adam Humphries67700
Mike Evans511671
O.J. Howard24631
Jacquizz Rodgers23250
DeSean Jackson26200
Charles Sims1170

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.5%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.03
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.77