2017 · Week 4
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 91°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
TB -2.5
Total
46
Model margin
+2.8est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.106EPA / play+0.004
- 41.1%Success rate44.2%
- -0.099EPA / dropback+0.090
- -0.119EPA / rush-0.167
- 6.2%Explosive rate6.5%
- -3.91CPOE+3.38
- 32.5%Third-down rate42.9%
- 51.3%Red-zone TD rate57.7%
- 1.19Points / drive1.79
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 8–5 since 1999
TB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. TB are 3-8-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 30/49 | 288 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne Gallman | 11 | 42 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 1 |
| Shane Vereen | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Paul Perkins | 9 | 13 | 1.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 7 | 15 | 90 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 6 | 11 | 62 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 5 | 5 | 54 | 0 |
| Brandon Marshall | 6 | 10 | 46 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 2 | 2 | 11 | 1 |
| Wayne Gallman | 2 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
| Paul Perkins | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 22/38 | 332 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 16 | 83 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Charles Sims | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Brate | 4 | 6 | 80 | 1 |
| Adam Humphries | 6 | 7 | 70 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 5 | 11 | 67 | 1 |
| O.J. Howard | 2 | 4 | 63 | 1 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 2 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| Charles Sims | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.5%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.03
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.77