2021 · Week 11
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 68°F · wind 6mph
Closing spread
TB -11.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
+8.5est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.141EPA / play+0.143
- 40.2%Success rate49.9%
- -0.146EPA / dropback+0.197
- -0.133EPA / rush+0.024
- 5.7%Explosive rate9.6%
- -4.62CPOE+1.50
- 35.9%Third-down rate48.0%
- 47.5%Red-zone TD rate64.7%
- 1.20Points / drive2.51
- 2.8%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 8–5 since 1999
TB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. TB are 3-8-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 23/38 | 167 | 1 | 2 |
| Kadarius Toney | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 0 |
| John Ross | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Daniel Jones | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kadarius Toney | 7 | 12 | 40 | 0 |
| Darius Slayton | 4 | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 6 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 1 | 1 | 28 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 2 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Kenny Golladay | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Chris Myarick | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Collin Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 30/46 | 307 | 2 | 1 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 2/2 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | 10 | 35 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Ronald Jones | 8 | 33 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Ke'Shawn Vaughn | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Breshad Perriman | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 6 | 11 | 73 | 1 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 6 | 8 | 71 | 0 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 6 | 6 | 65 | 1 |
| Leonard Fournette | 6 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 2 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Breshad Perriman | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| O.J. Howard | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Tyler Johnson | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Jaelon Darden | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
1.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
71.0%
Expected total
41.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+7.33
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+8.48