2021 · Week 11

Final

Giants

New York

QB Daniel Jones

10·30

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Tom Brady

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 68°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

TB -11.5

Total

49.5

Model margin

+8.5est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.141EPA / play+0.143
  • 40.2%Success rate49.9%
  • -0.146EPA / dropback+0.197
  • -0.133EPA / rush+0.024
  • 5.7%Explosive rate9.6%
  • -4.62CPOE+1.50
  • 35.9%Third-down rate48.0%
  • 47.5%Red-zone TD rate64.7%
  • 1.20Points / drive2.51
  • 2.8%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 8–5 since 1999

TB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. TB are 3-8-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W12TB @ NYG30–7TB
2020 · W8TB @ NYG25–23TB
2019 · W3NYG @ TB32–31NYG
2018 · W11TB @ NYG35–38NYG
2017 · W4NYG @ TB23–25TB
2015 · W9NYG @ TB32–18NYG
2012 · W2TB @ NYG34–41NYG
2009 · W3NYG @ TB24–0NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–TB
TBQ1 15:00873Touchdown0–7
NYGQ1 11:031451Field goal3–7
TBQ1 4:041779Field goal3–10
NYGQ2 11:1638Punt3–10
TBQ2 10:0010Turnover3–10
NYGQ2 9:5325Touchdown10–10
TBQ2 9:14871Touchdown10–17
NYGQ2 5:06421Punt10–17
TBQ2 3:251050Punt10–17
NYGQ2 0:43332Turnover10–17
NYGQ3 15:00741Turnover on downs10–17
TBQ3 12:221274Touchdown10–24
NYGQ3 7:31313Turnover10–24
TBQ3 6:14515Field goal10–27
NYGQ3 3:531031Punt10–27
TBQ4 14:35513Punt10–27
NYGQ4 12:31521Turnover10–27
TBQ4 10:02427Field goal10–30
NYGQ4 7:4435Punt10–30
TBQ4 6:423-10Punt10–30
NYGQ4 4:264-13Turnover on downs10–30
TBQ4 3:07412End of half10–30

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones23/3816712
Kadarius Toney0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley6254.20
John Ross11616.00
Devontae Booker3155.00
Daniel Jones3103.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kadarius Toney712400
Darius Slayton47370
Saquon Barkley66310
Kyle Rudolph11280
Evan Engram25120
Kenny Golladay12120
Devontae Booker1150
Chris Myarick0100
Collin Johnson0100

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady30/4630721
Blaine Gabbert2/21100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Leonard Fournette10353.50
Ronald Jones8334.11
Tom Brady11010.00
Mike Evans11010.00
Chris Godwin Jr.177.00
Ke'Shawn Vaughn341.30
Blaine Gabbert2-2-1.00
Breshad Perriman1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans611731
Rob Gronkowski68710
Chris Godwin Jr.66651
Leonard Fournette66390
Cameron Brate26270
Breshad Perriman24190
O.J. Howard11100
Tyler Johnson1380
Giovani Bernard1130
Jaelon Darden1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +11.55.5%7.0%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.4%2.8%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

1.42%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

71.0%

Expected total

41.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+7.33
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+8.48