2024 · Week 12
Final
MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 50°F · wind 13mph
Closing spread
TB -6.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
-2.6est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.133EPA / play-0.088
- 49.4%Success rate41.1%
- +0.211EPA / dropback-0.073
- +0.012EPA / rush-0.116
- 10.2%Explosive rate6.8%
- +3.56CPOE-1.45
- 50.8%Third-down rate36.0%
- 71.2%Red-zone TD rate47.5%
- 2.71Points / drive1.28
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 8–5 since 1999
TB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. NYG are 8-3-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 24/30 | 294 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | 12 | 88 | 7.3 | 1 |
| Rachaad White | 12 | 37 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Baker Mayfield | 4 | 29 | 7.3 | 1 |
| Sean Tucker | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 5 | 6 | 68 | 0 |
| Bucky Irving | 6 | 6 | 64 | 0 |
| Cade Otton | 1 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Rakim Jarrett | 1 | 1 | 30 | 0 |
| Payne Durham | 1 | 1 | 26 | 0 |
| Trey Palmer | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 5 | 7 | 16 | 0 |
| Ryan Miller | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Jalen McMillan | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Sean Tucker | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy DeVito | 21/31 | 189 | 0 | 0 |
| Drew Lock | 1/1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 9 | 42 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Tommy DeVito | 7 | 32 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 1 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Eric Gray | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Nabers | 6 | 9 | 64 | 0 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 5 | 5 | 47 | 0 |
| Theo Johnson | 3 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 4 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Eric Gray | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Darius Slayton | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
3.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.0%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.51
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+1.17
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.64