2024 · Week 12

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Baker Mayfield

30·7

Giants

New York

QB Tommy DeVito

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 50°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

TB -6.5

Total

40.5

Model margin

-2.6est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapGiants
  • +0.133EPA / play-0.088
  • 49.4%Success rate41.1%
  • +0.211EPA / dropback-0.073
  • +0.012EPA / rush-0.116
  • 10.2%Explosive rate6.8%
  • +3.56CPOE-1.45
  • 50.8%Third-down rate36.0%
  • 71.2%Red-zone TD rate47.5%
  • 2.71Points / drive1.28
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 8–5 since 1999

TB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. NYG are 8-3-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · W11NYG @ TB10–30TB
2020 · W8TB @ NYG25–23TB
2019 · W3NYG @ TB32–31NYG
2018 · W11TB @ NYG35–38NYG
2017 · W4NYG @ TB23–25TB
2015 · W9NYG @ TB32–18NYG
2012 · W2TB @ NYG34–41NYG
2009 · W3NYG @ TB24–0NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–NYG
TBQ1 15:001470Touchdown7–0
NYGQ1 6:37411Punt7–0
TBQ1 3:41417Punt7–0
NYGQ1 1:3149Turnover on downs7–0
TBQ1 0:01535Field goal10–0
NYGQ2 12:033-1Punt10–0
TBQ2 10:04787Touchdown17–0
NYGQ2 6:23627Punt17–0
TBQ2 2:571081Touchdown23–0
NYGQ2 0:1200End of half23–0
NYGQ3 15:00965Turnover23–0
TBQ3 10:551478Touchdown30–0
NYGQ3 3:451478Touchdown30–7
TBQ4 11:28468Turnover30–7
NYGQ4 9:03614Turnover on downs30–7
TBQ4 7:2536Punt30–7
NYGQ4 5:1241Punt30–7
TBQ4 3:2549Turnover on downs30–7
NYGQ4 1:11842End of half30–7

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield24/3029400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bucky Irving12887.31
Rachaad White12373.11
Baker Mayfield4297.31
Sean Tucker430.81

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans56680
Bucky Irving66640
Cade Otton13300
Rakim Jarrett11300
Payne Durham11260
Trey Palmer11180
Sterling Shepard57160
Ryan Miller11140
Jalen McMillan12110
Rachaad White11100
Sean Tucker1170

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tommy DeVito21/3118900
Drew Lock1/1300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tyrone Tracy Jr.9424.70
Tommy DeVito7324.60
Devin Singletary231.51
Wan'Dale Robinson100.00
Eric Gray1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Malik Nabers69640
Wan'Dale Robinson55470
Theo Johnson36390
Tyrone Tracy Jr.44280
Devin Singletary2270
Eric Gray2270
Darius Slayton0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -6.52.7%3.0%4.8%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

3.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

42.0%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.51
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.17
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.64