Closing spread
PIT -6
Total
37
Model margin
+4.9est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
2.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.063EPA / play-0.110
- 41.6%Success rate35.3%
- -0.073EPA / dropback-0.079
- -0.048EPA / rush-0.177
- 6.4%Explosive rate6.6%
- 37.4%Third-down rate29.7%
- 52.5%Red-zone TD rate74.3%
- 1.27Points / drive1.12
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.045EPA / play allowed+0.100
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 42–13–1 since 1999
Meetings average 38.9 points. CLE are 25-29-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kordell Stewart | 15/23 | 173 | 1 | 0 |
| Mike Tomczak | 8/8 | 78 | 2 | 0 |
| Pete Gonzalez | 1/1 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 18 | 89 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Amos Zereoue | 17 | 44 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Richard Huntley | 10 | 41 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Kordell Stewart | 7 | 35 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Pete Gonzalez | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Huntley | 5 | 6 | 67 | 2 |
| Hines Ward | 3 | 4 | 51 | 1 |
| Troy Edwards | 4 | 5 | 45 | 0 |
| Courtney Hawkins | 3 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Bobby Shaw | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Will Blackwell | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Amos Zereoue | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Mark Bruener | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Kirby | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Ty Detmer | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Sedrick Shaw | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leslie Shepherd | 2 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Kevin Johnson | 2 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Terry Kirby | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.38%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.2%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.38
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.76
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.94