2023 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Kenny Pickett

10·13

Browns

Cleveland

QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 48°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

CLE -2.5

Total

34

Model margin

-0.4est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapBrowns
  • -0.064EPA / play-0.127
  • 42.3%Success rate39.3%
  • -0.060EPA / dropback-0.131
  • -0.069EPA / rush-0.121
  • 8.8%Explosive rate8.2%
  • -0.21CPOE-5.66
  • 37.3%Third-down rate32.3%
  • 58.6%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
  • 1.54Points / drive1.56
  • 1.4%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 42–14–1 since 1999

CLE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.1 points. CLE are 26-29-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4PIT @ CLE24–27CLE
2025 · W17PIT @ CLE6–13CLE
2025 · W6CLE @ PIT9–23PIT
2024 · W14CLE @ PIT14–27PIT
2024 · W12PIT @ CLE19–24CLE
2023 · W2CLE @ PIT22–26PIT
2022 · W18CLE @ PIT14–28PIT
2022 · W3PIT @ CLE17–29CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–CLE
CLEQ1 15:00831Punt0–0
PITQ1 10:283-2Punt0–0
CLEQ1 8:24744Touchdown0–7
PITQ1 4:35518Punt0–7
CLEQ1 1:1639Punt0–7
PITQ2 14:52842Punt0–7
CLEQ2 11:0937Punt0–7
PITQ2 8:4957Punt0–7
CLEQ2 5:291672Field goal0–10
PITQ2 0:0500End of half0–10
PITQ3 15:00275Touchdown7–10
CLEQ3 14:10925Punt7–10
PITQ3 9:4237Punt7–10
CLEQ3 7:5235Punt7–10
PITQ3 6:54817Punt7–10
CLEQ3 4:066-3Turnover7–10
PITQ3 1:3032Punt7–10
CLEQ3 0:503-4Punt7–10
PITQ4 14:501262Field goal10–10
CLEQ4 7:40412Punt10–10
PITQ4 5:4749Punt10–10
CLEQ4 3:29518Punt10–10
PITQ4 1:4230Punt10–10
CLEQ4 1:18643Field goal10–13
PITQ4 0:02113End of half10–13

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kenny Pickett15/2810600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jaylen Warren912914.31
Najee Harris12352.90
Kenny Pickett492.30
George Pickens1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Pickens46380
Allen Robinson34200
Diontae Johnson28160
Jaylen Warren33160
Darnell Washington1180
Pat Freiermuth1170
Najee Harris1210

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dorian Thompson-Robinson24/4316501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kareem Hunt12363.00
Jerome Ford12312.61
Dorian Thompson-Robinson3206.70
Cedric Tillman188.00
Pierre Strong111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Elijah Moore67600
David Njoku715560
Amari Cooper48340
Jerome Ford2580
Pierre Strong1140
Cedric Tillman1220
Kareem Hunt3310

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

7.30%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.9%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.53
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.59
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.42