Closing spread
CLE -2.5
Total
34
Model margin
-0.4est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.064EPA / play-0.127
- 42.3%Success rate39.3%
- -0.060EPA / dropback-0.131
- -0.069EPA / rush-0.121
- 8.8%Explosive rate8.2%
- -0.21CPOE-5.66
- 37.3%Third-down rate32.3%
- 58.6%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
- 1.54Points / drive1.56
- 1.4%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 42–13–1 since 1999
Meetings average 38.9 points. CLE are 25-29-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Pickett | 15/28 | 106 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren | 9 | 129 | 14.3 | 1 |
| Najee Harris | 12 | 35 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Kenny Pickett | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| George Pickens | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Pickens | 4 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Allen Robinson | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Diontae Johnson | 2 | 8 | 16 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Darnell Washington | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Najee Harris | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorian Thompson-Robinson | 24/43 | 165 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 12 | 36 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jerome Ford | 12 | 31 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Dorian Thompson-Robinson | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Cedric Tillman | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Pierre Strong | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah Moore | 6 | 7 | 60 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 7 | 15 | 56 | 0 |
| Amari Cooper | 4 | 8 | 34 | 0 |
| Jerome Ford | 2 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| Pierre Strong | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Cedric Tillman | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
7.30%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.9%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.53
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-1.59
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.42