Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+15.8est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Brownsedge mapSteelers
- -0.206EPA / play-0.251
- 43.1%Success rate33.8%
- -0.257EPA / dropback-0.251
- -0.119EPA / rush-0.252
- 7.8%Explosive rate6.2%
- +10.32CPOE+1.23
- 12.5%Third-down rate25.0%
- 33.3%Red-zone TD rate50.0%
- 1.11Points / drive1.00
- 3.9%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 42–13–1 since 1999
Meetings average 38.9 points. PIT are 29-25-2 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+13.55
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+15.77