Closing spread
PIT -3.5
Total
36.5
Model margin
-0.3est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.027EPA / play-0.179
- 40.7%Success rate37.1%
- +0.051EPA / dropback-0.196
- -0.124EPA / rush-0.140
- 9.8%Explosive rate5.8%
- +3.65CPOE-4.22
- 39.7%Third-down rate28.8%
- 55.4%Red-zone TD rate56.8%
- 1.86Points / drive1.09
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 42–13–1 since 1999
Meetings average 38.9 points. CLE are 25-29-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 21/28 | 270 | 1 | 0 |
| Justin Fields | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren | 11 | 45 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Najee Harris | 16 | 41 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Justin Fields | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Austin III | 3 | 3 | 78 | 1 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 4 | 4 | 59 | 0 |
| George Pickens | 4 | 7 | 48 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 2 | 2 | 39 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Darnell Washington | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Najee Harris | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 18/27 | 219 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 20 | 59 | 3.0 | 2 |
| Jerome Ford | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Jeudy | 6 | 6 | 85 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 3 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Blake Whiteheart | 1 | 1 | 29 | 0 |
| Cedric Tillman | 2 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 3 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 1 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| Jerome Ford | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
7.38%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.4%
Expected total
41.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.95
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.25