2024 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Russell Wilson

19·24

Browns

Cleveland

QB Jameis Winston

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 36°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

PIT -3.5

Total

36.5

Model margin

-0.3est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapBrowns
  • -0.027EPA / play-0.179
  • 40.7%Success rate37.1%
  • +0.051EPA / dropback-0.196
  • -0.124EPA / rush-0.140
  • 9.8%Explosive rate5.8%
  • +3.65CPOE-4.22
  • 39.7%Third-down rate28.8%
  • 55.4%Red-zone TD rate56.8%
  • 1.86Points / drive1.09
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 42–14–1 since 1999

CLE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.1 points. CLE are 26-29-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4PIT @ CLE24–27CLE
2025 · W17PIT @ CLE6–13CLE
2025 · W6CLE @ PIT9–23PIT
2024 · W14CLE @ PIT14–27PIT
2023 · W11PIT @ CLE10–13CLE
2023 · W2CLE @ PIT22–26PIT
2022 · W18CLE @ PIT14–28PIT
2022 · W3PIT @ CLE17–29CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–CLE
PITQ1 15:00844Missed field goal0–0
CLEQ1 9:12311Punt0–0
PITQ1 7:35746Turnover on downs0–0
CLEQ1 3:2538Punt0–0
PITQ1 2:01964Field goal3–0
CLEQ2 10:531280Touchdown3–7
PITQ2 4:002-2Turnover3–7
CLEQ2 3:11520Field goal3–10
PITQ2 0:40411End of half3–10
CLEQ3 15:00339Turnover3–10
PITQ3 13:42620Turnover on downs3–10
CLEQ3 10:3436Punt3–10
PITQ3 9:091278Field goal6–10
CLEQ3 1:561065Touchdown6–18
PITQ4 12:16845Touchdown13–18
CLEQ4 7:5721Turnover13–18
PITQ4 7:05327Touchdown19–18
CLEQ4 6:15630Turnover19–18
PITQ4 4:2236Punt19–18
CLEQ4 3:221044Touchdown19–24
PITQ4 0:57629End of half19–24

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson21/2827010
Justin Fields0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jaylen Warren11454.11
Najee Harris16412.60
Justin Fields3268.70
Russell Wilson3103.30
Cordarrelle Patterson1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Austin III33781
Pat Freiermuth44590
George Pickens47480
Van Jefferson22390
Jaylen Warren34190
Darnell Washington33140
Najee Harris22130

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston18/2721901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb20593.02
Jerome Ford4194.80
Jameis Winston372.31

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jerry Jeudy66850
Jordan Akins34380
Blake Whiteheart11290
Cedric Tillman24280
Elijah Moore35210
David Njoku1590
Jerome Ford1180
Nick Chubb1110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

7.38%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.4%

Expected total

41.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.95
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.25