Closing spread
PIT -6
Total
43
Model margin
+3.7est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.179EPA / play-0.027
- 37.1%Success rate40.7%
- -0.196EPA / dropback+0.051
- -0.140EPA / rush-0.124
- 5.8%Explosive rate9.8%
- -4.22CPOE+3.65
- 28.8%Third-down rate39.7%
- 56.8%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
- 1.09Points / drive1.86
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 42–13–1 since 1999
Meetings average 38.9 points. PIT are 29-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 24/41 | 212 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 11 | 48 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 4 | 28 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Jerome Ford | 10 | 28 | 2.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Jeudy | 5 | 6 | 64 | 1 |
| David Njoku | 7 | 13 | 42 | 1 |
| Elijah Moore | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Jerome Ford | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| James Proche | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Mike Woods | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Pierre Strong | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Blake Whiteheart | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 15/26 | 158 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 16 | 53 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Jaylen Warren | 9 | 47 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pat Freiermuth | 3 | 3 | 48 | 1 |
| Scott Miller | 3 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 2 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 1 | 1 | 10 | 1 |
| Calvin Austin III | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Darnell Washington | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
3.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.1%
Expected total
41.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.95
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.74