2024 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Jameis Winston

14·27

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Russell Wilson

Acrisure Stadium · outdoors · grass · 49°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

PIT -6

Total

43

Model margin

+3.7est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapSteelers
  • -0.179EPA / play-0.027
  • 37.1%Success rate40.7%
  • -0.196EPA / dropback+0.051
  • -0.140EPA / rush-0.124
  • 5.8%Explosive rate9.8%
  • -4.22CPOE+3.65
  • 28.8%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 56.8%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
  • 1.09Points / drive1.86
  • 2.7%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 42–14–1 since 1999

CLE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.1 points. PIT are 29-26-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4PIT @ CLE24–27CLE
2025 · W17PIT @ CLE6–13CLE
2025 · W6CLE @ PIT9–23PIT
2024 · W12PIT @ CLE19–24CLE
2023 · W11PIT @ CLE10–13CLE
2023 · W2CLE @ PIT22–26PIT
2022 · W18CLE @ PIT14–28PIT
2022 · W3PIT @ CLE17–29CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–PIT
PITQ1 15:0032Punt0–0
CLEQ1 13:313-12Punt0–0
PITQ1 12:02529Field goal0–3
CLEQ1 9:32770Touchdown7–3
PITQ1 5:5036Punt7–3
CLEQ1 4:34612Punt7–3
PITQ1 1:5639Punt7–3
CLEQ1 0:433-1Punt7–3
PITQ2 14:4134Punt7–3
CLEQ2 13:2610Turnover7–3
PITQ2 13:18615Touchdown7–10
CLEQ2 11:0035Punt7–10
PITQ2 10:001155Field goal7–13
CLEQ2 4:211150Missed field goal7–13
PITQ2 0:2327End of half7–13
CLEQ3 15:0059Missed field goal7–13
PITQ3 12:40867Touchdown7–20
CLEQ3 8:37616Turnover on downs7–20
PITQ3 5:46546Touchdown7–27
CLEQ3 3:511156Punt7–27
PITQ4 14:3235Punt7–27
CLEQ4 13:061484Touchdown14–27
PITQ4 7:19520Turnover14–27
CLEQ4 4:43211Turnover14–27
PITQ4 3:573-10Punt14–27
PITQ4 2:53314End of half14–27

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston24/4121222

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb11484.40
Jameis Winston4287.00
Jerome Ford10282.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jerry Jeudy56641
David Njoku713421
Elijah Moore34340
Jerome Ford34190
James Proche22180
Jordan Akins11140
Mike Woods13120
Pierre Strong2290
Nick Chubb0100
Blake Whiteheart0100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson15/2615820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Najee Harris16533.31
Jaylen Warren9475.20
Russell Wilson6172.80
Cordarrelle Patterson430.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Pat Freiermuth33481
Scott Miller34380
Mike Williams34360
Jaylen Warren25250
Van Jefferson11101
Calvin Austin III1440
Darnell Washington0100
MyCole Pruitt11-10
Cordarrelle Patterson11-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

3.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.1%

Expected total

41.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.95
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+3.74