2026 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Aaron Rodgers

24·27

Browns

Cleveland

QB Deshaun Watson

Huntington Bank Field · outdoors · grass · 77°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

PIT -2.5

Total

38.5

Model margin

+1.8est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapBrowns
  • -0.029EPA / play-0.040
  • 42.3%Success rate42.7%
  • -0.063EPA / dropback+0.039
  • +0.043EPA / rush-0.175
  • 8.1%Explosive rate7.8%
  • -1.45CPOE-1.22
  • 36.8%Third-down rate32.8%
  • 50.4%Red-zone TD rate59.3%
  • 1.79Points / drive1.65
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 42–14–1 since 1999

CLE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.1 points. CLE are 26-29-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17PIT @ CLE6–13CLE
2025 · W6CLE @ PIT9–23PIT
2024 · W14CLE @ PIT14–27PIT
2024 · W12PIT @ CLE19–24CLE
2023 · W11PIT @ CLE10–13CLE
2023 · W2CLE @ PIT22–26PIT
2022 · W18CLE @ PIT14–28PIT
2022 · W3PIT @ CLE17–29CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–CLE
CLEQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
PITQ1 12:471873Touchdown7–0
CLEQ1 2:59422Punt7–0
PITQ1 1:21423Turnover7–0
CLEQ2 14:11456Touchdown7–7
PITQ2 12:1435Punt7–7
CLEQ2 10:38474Touchdown7–14
PITQ2 8:28635Missed field goal7–14
CLEQ2 5:211262Touchdown7–21
PITQ2 1:22749Field goal10–21
CLEQ2 0:0800End of half10–21
PITQ3 15:0030Punt10–21
CLEQ3 13:2268Punt10–21
PITQ3 10:1032Punt10–21
CLEQ3 8:38834Turnover10–21
PITQ3 4:13510Punt10–21
CLEQ3 1:13415Turnover10–21
PITQ4 14:11782Touchdown16–21
CLEQ4 10:10635Field goal16–24
PITQ4 6:3735Punt16–24
CLEQ4 5:31518Punt16–24
PITQ4 3:32977Touchdown24–24
CLEQ4 1:42641Field goal24–27
PITQ4 0:1010Turnover24–27
CLEQ4 0:0100End of half24–27

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers22/4029932

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jaylen Warren17935.50
Travis Homer2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DK Metcalf591150
Roman Wilson36741
Jaylen Warren36330
Darnell Washington35271
Pat Freiermuth35171
Michael Pittman24150
Germie Bernard22110
Ben Skowronek1270

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson24/3326811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Quinshon Judkins17533.11
Jaleel McLaughlin12828.01
Deshaun Watson7223.10
Raheim Sanders294.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Denzel Boston47890
KC Concepcion58640
Quinshon Judkins67430
Jerry Jeudy33360
Harold Fannin Jr.35271
Raheim Sanders2270
Isaiah Bond1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

2.06%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.0%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.40
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.82