2023 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Deshaun Watson

22·26

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Kenny Pickett

Acrisure Stadium · outdoors

Closing spread

CLE -2.5

Total

39

Model margin

+2.4est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapSteelers
  • -0.127EPA / play-0.064
  • 39.3%Success rate42.3%
  • -0.131EPA / dropback-0.060
  • -0.121EPA / rush-0.069
  • 8.2%Explosive rate8.8%
  • -5.66CPOE-0.21
  • 32.3%Third-down rate37.3%
  • 61.2%Red-zone TD rate58.6%
  • 1.56Points / drive1.54
  • 3.0%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 42–14–1 since 1999

CLE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.1 points. PIT are 29-26-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4PIT @ CLE24–27CLE
2025 · W17PIT @ CLE6–13CLE
2025 · W6CLE @ PIT9–23PIT
2024 · W14CLE @ PIT14–27PIT
2024 · W12PIT @ CLE19–24CLE
2023 · W11PIT @ CLE10–13CLE
2022 · W18CLE @ PIT14–28PIT
2022 · W3PIT @ CLE17–29CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–PIT
CLEQ1 15:0010Opp touchdown0–7
CLEQ1 14:511160Field goal3–7
PITQ1 8:4637Turnover3–7
CLEQ1 8:073-6Missed field goal3–7
PITQ1 6:38312Punt3–7
CLEQ1 4:14853Turnover3–7
PITQ1 0:2210Turnover3–7
CLEQ1 0:08423Touchdown11–7
PITQ2 14:02635Punt11–7
CLEQ2 11:153-2Punt11–7
PITQ2 10:3135Field goal11–10
CLEQ2 9:1133Punt11–10
PITQ2 7:41482Touchdown11–16
CLEQ2 6:053-1Punt11–16
PITQ2 5:08612Punt11–16
CLEQ2 2:46833Field goal14–16
PITQ2 0:2200End of half14–16
PITQ3 15:00844Field goal14–19
CLEQ3 11:47475Touchdown22–19
PITQ3 10:01527Punt22–19
CLEQ3 7:30843Punt22–19
PITQ3 3:59539Punt22–19
CLEQ3 1:111278Turnover22–19
PITQ4 10:353-11Punt22–19
CLEQ4 9:01510Opp touchdown22–26
CLEQ4 6:5858Punt22–26
PITQ4 4:3736Punt22–26
CLEQ4 2:55731Turnover on downs22–26
PITQ4 1:0000End of half22–26

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson22/4023511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerome Ford161066.60
Nick Chubb10646.40
Deshaun Watson6223.70
Elijah Moore155.00
Pierre Strong210.51

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amari Cooper710900
David Njoku44480
Elijah Moore39360
David Bell33270
Jerome Ford34251
Donovan Peoples-Jones1470
Jordan Akins1120
Marquise Goodwin0200
Harrison Bryant0200
Pierre Strong0100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kenny Pickett15/3022211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Najee Harris10434.30
Jaylen Warren6203.30
Calvin Austin III1-2-2.00
Kenny Pickett4-6-1.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Pickens4101271
Jaylen Warren46660
Allen Robinson23120
Calvin Austin III14100
Miles Boykin1150
Pat Freiermuth1120
Gunner Olszewski1100
Najee Harris1300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

2.04%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.4%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.53
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.13
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.36