Closing spread
CLE -2.5
Total
39
Model margin
+2.4est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.127EPA / play-0.064
- 39.3%Success rate42.3%
- -0.131EPA / dropback-0.060
- -0.121EPA / rush-0.069
- 8.2%Explosive rate8.8%
- -5.66CPOE-0.21
- 32.3%Third-down rate37.3%
- 61.2%Red-zone TD rate58.6%
- 1.56Points / drive1.54
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 42–13–1 since 1999
Meetings average 38.9 points. PIT are 29-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 22/40 | 235 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Ford | 16 | 106 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 10 | 64 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Deshaun Watson | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Pierre Strong | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amari Cooper | 7 | 10 | 90 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 4 | 4 | 48 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 3 | 9 | 36 | 0 |
| David Bell | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Jerome Ford | 3 | 4 | 25 | 1 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Harrison Bryant | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Pierre Strong | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Pickett | 15/30 | 222 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 10 | 43 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Calvin Austin III | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
| Kenny Pickett | 4 | -6 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Pickens | 4 | 10 | 127 | 1 |
| Jaylen Warren | 4 | 6 | 66 | 0 |
| Allen Robinson | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Calvin Austin III | 1 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Miles Boykin | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Gunner Olszewski | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Najee Harris | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
2.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.4%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.53
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.13
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.36