2025 · Week 6 · Division

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Dillon Gabriel

9·23

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Aaron Rodgers

Acrisure Stadium · outdoors · grass · 64°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

PIT -5.5

Total

37.5

Model margin

+1.6est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapSteelers
  • -0.176EPA / play+0.027
  • 35.2%Success rate44.1%
  • -0.212EPA / dropback+0.046
  • -0.115EPA / rush-0.001
  • 6.1%Explosive rate8.3%
  • -5.66CPOE+0.58
  • 33.8%Third-down rate40.4%
  • 48.2%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
  • 1.18Points / drive2.11
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 42–14–1 since 1999

CLE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.1 points. PIT are 29-26-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4PIT @ CLE24–27CLE
2025 · W17PIT @ CLE6–13CLE
2024 · W14CLE @ PIT14–27PIT
2024 · W12PIT @ CLE19–24CLE
2023 · W11PIT @ CLE10–13CLE
2023 · W2CLE @ PIT22–26PIT
2022 · W18CLE @ PIT14–28PIT
2022 · W3PIT @ CLE17–29CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–PIT
PITQ1 15:00746Field goal0–3
CLEQ1 10:55718Punt0–3
PITQ1 7:53627Punt0–3
CLEQ1 3:54716Punt0–3
PITQ1 0:061039Field goal0–6
CLEQ2 11:0130Punt0–6
PITQ2 8:57954Field goal0–9
CLEQ2 3:381872Field goal3–9
CLEQ3 15:0045Punt3–9
PITQ3 13:481184Touchdown3–16
CLEQ3 7:46834Field goal6–16
PITQ3 4:08773Touchdown6–23
CLEQ4 14:551849Field goal9–23
PITQ4 9:2936Punt9–23
CLEQ4 7:05712Turnover on downs9–23
PITQ4 4:0236Missed field goal9–23
CLEQ4 3:391042Turnover on downs9–23
PITQ4 1:2200End of half9–23

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dillon Gabriel29/5222100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Quinshon Judkins12363.00
Jerome Ford2178.50
Dylan Sampson3124.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Harold Fannin Jr.710810
Jerry Jeudy513430
David Njoku36280
Gage Larvadain24220
Jerome Ford56130
Jamari Thrash23130
Dylan Sampson22120
Isaiah Bond2590
Blake Whiteheart1100
Quinshon Judkins0100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers21/3023520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jaylen Warren11524.70
Kenny Gainwell6223.70
Kaleb Johnson6152.50
Jonnu Smith11010.00
Aaron Rodgers111.00
Mason Rudolph300.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DK Metcalf49951
Darnell Washington35620
Jonnu Smith34180
Kenny Gainwell66140
Roman Wilson11120
Pat Freiermuth11110
Jaylen Warren22110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.54.2%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

3.04%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.3%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.85
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.56
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+1.56