Closing spread
PIT -5.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
+1.6est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.176EPA / play+0.027
- 35.2%Success rate44.1%
- -0.212EPA / dropback+0.046
- -0.115EPA / rush-0.001
- 6.1%Explosive rate8.3%
- -5.66CPOE+0.58
- 33.8%Third-down rate40.4%
- 48.2%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
- 1.18Points / drive2.11
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 42–13–1 since 1999
Meetings average 38.9 points. PIT are 29-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dillon Gabriel | 29/52 | 221 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinshon Judkins | 12 | 36 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jerome Ford | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Dylan Sampson | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 7 | 10 | 81 | 0 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 5 | 13 | 43 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 3 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Gage Larvadain | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Jerome Ford | 5 | 6 | 13 | 0 |
| Jamari Thrash | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Dylan Sampson | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Isaiah Bond | 2 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| Blake Whiteheart | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Quinshon Judkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 21/30 | 235 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren | 11 | 52 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Kaleb Johnson | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Mason Rudolph | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 4 | 9 | 95 | 1 |
| Darnell Washington | 3 | 5 | 62 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 6 | 6 | 14 | 0 |
| Roman Wilson | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
3.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.3%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.85
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-1.56
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+1.56