2025 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Aaron Rodgers

6·13

Browns

Cleveland

QB Shedeur Sanders

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 45°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

PIT -4.5

Total

35.5

Model margin

+0.9est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapBrowns
  • +0.027EPA / play-0.176
  • 44.1%Success rate35.2%
  • +0.046EPA / dropback-0.212
  • -0.001EPA / rush-0.115
  • 8.3%Explosive rate6.1%
  • +0.58CPOE-5.66
  • 40.4%Third-down rate33.8%
  • 66.8%Red-zone TD rate48.2%
  • 2.11Points / drive1.18
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 42–14–1 since 1999

CLE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.1 points. CLE are 26-29-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4PIT @ CLE24–27CLE
2025 · W6CLE @ PIT9–23PIT
2024 · W14CLE @ PIT14–27PIT
2024 · W12PIT @ CLE19–24CLE
2023 · W11PIT @ CLE10–13CLE
2023 · W2CLE @ PIT22–26PIT
2022 · W18CLE @ PIT14–28PIT
2022 · W3PIT @ CLE17–29CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–CLE
CLEQ1 15:00841Field goal0–3
PITQ1 10:4836Punt0–3
CLEQ1 8:32686Touchdown0–10
PITQ1 5:111050Field goal3–10
CLEQ2 14:54737Turnover on downs3–10
PITQ2 10:14419Punt3–10
CLEQ2 8:28638Turnover3–10
PITQ2 4:5549Turnover on downs3–10
CLEQ2 2:4638Punt3–10
PITQ2 1:51761Field goal6–10
PITQ3 15:00518Punt6–10
CLEQ3 11:55917Punt6–10
PITQ3 6:001242Missed field goal6–10
CLEQ4 12:53210Turnover6–10
PITQ4 12:02424Punt6–10
CLEQ4 9:44412Punt6–10
PITQ4 7:0334Punt6–10
CLEQ4 4:5439Punt6–10
PITQ4 2:1640Turnover on downs6–10
CLEQ4 1:5835Field goal6–13
PITQ4 1:40858Turnover on downs6–13
CLEQ4 0:1700End of half6–13

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers21/3916800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jaylen Warren12645.30
Kenny Gainwell7263.70
Jonnu Smith294.50
Aaron Rodgers166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Pat Freiermuth35630
Scott Miller37250
Marquez Valdes-Scantling39210
Jonnu Smith55180
Darnell Washington22150
Adam Thielen25140
Kenny Gainwell34120

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Shedeur Sanders17/2318612

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dylan Sampson11272.50
Raheim Sanders8212.60
Shedeur Sanders4205.00
Trayveon Williams2105.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jerry Jeudy57540
Cedric Tillman11420
Harold Fannin Jr.22301
Brenden Bates11190
Isaiah Bond11160
Sal Cannella24110
Raheim Sanders12100
Malachi Corley1140
Blake Whiteheart0100
Dylan Sampson3300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -4.54.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

2.41%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.4%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.85
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.86