Closing spread
PIT -4.5
Total
35.5
Model margin
+0.9est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.027EPA / play-0.176
- 44.1%Success rate35.2%
- +0.046EPA / dropback-0.212
- -0.001EPA / rush-0.115
- 8.3%Explosive rate6.1%
- +0.58CPOE-5.66
- 40.4%Third-down rate33.8%
- 66.8%Red-zone TD rate48.2%
- 2.11Points / drive1.18
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 42–13–1 since 1999
Meetings average 38.9 points. CLE are 25-29-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 21/39 | 168 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren | 12 | 64 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pat Freiermuth | 3 | 5 | 63 | 0 |
| Scott Miller | 3 | 7 | 25 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 3 | 9 | 21 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 5 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Darnell Washington | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 2 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 3 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shedeur Sanders | 17/23 | 186 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Sampson | 11 | 27 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Raheim Sanders | 8 | 21 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Shedeur Sanders | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Trayveon Williams | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Jeudy | 5 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| Cedric Tillman | 1 | 1 | 42 | 0 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 2 | 2 | 30 | 1 |
| Brenden Bates | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Isaiah Bond | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Sal Cannella | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Raheim Sanders | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Malachi Corley | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Blake Whiteheart | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dylan Sampson | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.41%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.4%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.85
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.86