Closing spread
DAL -6.5
Total
42
Model margin
+5.5est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.094EPA / play-0.013
- 38.5%Success rate39.6%
- -0.017EPA / dropback+0.043
- -0.220EPA / rush-0.079
- 7.2%Explosive rate9.3%
- 35.1%Third-down rate34.8%
- 54.7%Red-zone TD rate51.1%
- 1.22Points / drive1.25
- 3.3%Turnover rate2.2%
- +0.013EPA / play allowed-0.080
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
Meetings average 47.9 points. DAL are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Kanell | 9/22 | 172 | 1 | 2 |
| Tony Graziani | 7/16 | 90 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Hanspard | 19 | 76 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jamal Anderson | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tony Graziani | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Terance Mathis | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terance Mathis | 4 | 9 | 73 | 0 |
| Chris Calloway | 3 | 9 | 52 | 0 |
| Ronnie Harris | 3 | 4 | 46 | 0 |
| Tim Dwight | 1 | 1 | 45 | 1 |
| O.J. Santiago | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Brian Kozlowski | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Byron Hanspard | 1 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Aikman | 10/22 | 109 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 29 | 109 | 3.8 | 2 |
| Chris Warren | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Jason Tucker | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Troy Aikman | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raghib Ismail | 1 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Eric Bjornson | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Jeff Ogden | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Michael Irvin | 2 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| David LaFleur | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Ernie Mills | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Chris Warren | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Emmitt Smith | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Wane McGarity | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason Tucker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
4.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.5%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.24
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.65
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.45