1999 · Week 2

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Tony Graziani

7·24

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Troy Aikman

Texas Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 86°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

DAL -6.5

Total

42

Model margin

+5.5est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapCowboys
  • -0.094EPA / play-0.013
  • 38.5%Success rate39.6%
  • -0.017EPA / dropback+0.043
  • -0.220EPA / rush-0.079
  • 7.2%Explosive rate9.3%
  • 35.1%Third-down rate34.8%
  • 54.7%Red-zone TD rate51.1%
  • 1.22Points / drive1.25
  • 3.3%Turnover rate2.2%
  • +0.013EPA / play allowed-0.080

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 6–6 since 1999

Meetings average 47.9 points. DAL are 5-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W9DAL @ ATL21–27ATL
2021 · W10ATL @ DAL3–43DAL
2020 · W2ATL @ DAL39–40DAL
2018 · W11DAL @ ATL22–19DAL
2017 · W10DAL @ ATL7–27ATL
2015 · W3ATL @ DAL39–28ATL
2012 · W9DAL @ ATL13–19ATL
2009 · W7ATL @ DAL21–37DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–DAL
DALQ1 15:0067Punt0–0
ATLQ1 12:1437Turnover0–0
DALQ1 11:1134Field goal0–3
ATLQ1 9:5332Punt0–3
DALQ1 8:194-1Punt0–3
ATLQ1 7:17543Missed field goal0–3
DALQ1 4:39854Touchdown0–10
ATLQ1 0:3139Punt0–10
DALQ2 13:46621Turnover0–10
ATLQ2 11:49841Punt0–10
DALQ2 8:08551Punt0–10
ATLQ2 4:47427Punt0–10
DALQ2 2:2739Punt0–10
ATLQ2 1:04413Punt0–10
ATLQ3 15:0039Turnover0–10
DALQ3 13:20418Touchdown0–17
ATLQ3 11:24713Punt0–17
DALQ3 7:561128Missed field goal0–17
ATLQ3 1:053-8Punt0–17
DALQ3 0:1733Punt0–17
ATLQ4 14:42829Turnover0–17
DALQ4 10:571025Turnover0–17
ATLQ4 5:29875Touchdown7–17
DALQ4 4:00413Punt7–17
ATLQ4 1:57559Opp touchdown7–24
DALQ4 0:4600Opp touchdown7–24
ATLQ4 0:4645End of half7–24

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Danny Kanell9/2217212
Tony Graziani7/169001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Byron Hanspard19764.00
Jamal Anderson393.00
Tony Graziani100.00
Terance Mathis100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terance Mathis49730
Chris Calloway39520
Ronnie Harris34460
Tim Dwight11451
O.J. Santiago24170
Brian Kozlowski11140
Byron Hanspard1570

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Troy Aikman10/2210902

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Emmitt Smith291093.82
Chris Warren6152.50
Jason Tucker188.00
Troy Aikman122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Raghib Ismail13380
Eric Bjornson11180
Jeff Ogden22180
Michael Irvin25130
David LaFleur1290
Ernie Mills1280
Chris Warren1140
Emmitt Smith1110
Wane McGarity0300
Jason Tucker0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

4.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.5%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.24
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.65
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.45