2015 · Week 3

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

39·28

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Brandon Weeden

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -1

Total

43.5

Model margin

+4.6est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapCowboys
  • +0.000EPA / play-0.073
  • 46.4%Success rate43.9%
  • +0.113EPA / dropback-0.070
  • -0.195EPA / rush-0.077
  • 8.5%Explosive rate8.6%
  • -0.01CPOE-0.85
  • 47.3%Third-down rate34.0%
  • 54.2%Red-zone TD rate42.4%
  • 1.77Points / drive1.31
  • 2.7%Turnover rate3.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 6–6 since 1999

Meetings average 47.9 points. DAL are 5-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W9DAL @ ATL21–27ATL
2021 · W10ATL @ DAL3–43DAL
2020 · W2ATL @ DAL39–40DAL
2018 · W11DAL @ ATL22–19DAL
2017 · W10DAL @ ATL7–27ATL
2012 · W9DAL @ ATL13–19ATL
2009 · W7ATL @ DAL21–37DAL
2006 · W15DAL @ ATL38–28DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–DAL
DALQ1 15:00365Touchdown0–7
ATLQ1 13:523-3Punt0–7
DALQ1 11:44877Touchdown0–14
ATLQ1 7:071277Touchdown7–14
DALQ1 3:00522Punt7–14
ATLQ2 14:51413Punt7–14
DALQ2 12:34966Touchdown7–21
ATLQ2 7:2536Punt7–21
DALQ2 6:0310Turnover7–21
ATLQ2 5:50820Touchdown14–21
DALQ2 2:18665Touchdown14–28
ATLQ2 0:40566Field goal17–28
ATLQ3 15:00716Punt17–28
DALQ3 12:35419Punt17–28
ATLQ3 10:20687Touchdown25–28
DALQ3 7:05814Punt25–28
ATLQ3 3:091189Touchdown32–28
DALQ4 11:253-2Punt32–28
ATLQ4 9:181162Touchdown39–28
DALQ4 3:04621Turnover on downs39–28
ATLQ4 1:2926End of half39–28

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan24/3628520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devonta Freeman301414.73
Matt Ryan2178.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones12201642
Devonta Freeman55520
Leonard Hankerson36450
Jacob Tamme1180
Nick Williams1160
Levine Toilolo1160
Patrick DiMarco1140

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brandon Weeden22/2623201

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joseph Randle14876.23
Darren McFadden6355.81
Lance Dunbar155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Lance Dunbar10101000
Jason Witten68650
Cole Beasley44490
Joseph Randle22180
Terrance Williams0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

2.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.2%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.97
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.05
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.56