Closing spread
DAL -1
Total
43.5
Model margin
+4.6est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.000EPA / play-0.073
- 46.4%Success rate43.9%
- +0.113EPA / dropback-0.070
- -0.195EPA / rush-0.077
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.6%
- -0.01CPOE-0.85
- 47.3%Third-down rate34.0%
- 54.2%Red-zone TD rate42.4%
- 1.77Points / drive1.31
- 2.7%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
Meetings average 47.9 points. DAL are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 24/36 | 285 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonta Freeman | 30 | 141 | 4.7 | 3 |
| Matt Ryan | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 12 | 20 | 164 | 2 |
| Devonta Freeman | 5 | 5 | 52 | 0 |
| Leonard Hankerson | 3 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Jacob Tamme | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Nick Williams | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Levine Toilolo | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Patrick DiMarco | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Weeden | 22/26 | 232 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Randle | 14 | 87 | 6.2 | 3 |
| Darren McFadden | 6 | 35 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Lance Dunbar | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lance Dunbar | 10 | 10 | 100 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 6 | 8 | 65 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 4 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| Joseph Randle | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Terrance Williams | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.2%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.97
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+3.05
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.56