Closing spread
ATL -3.5
Total
49
Model margin
+2.8est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.008EPA / play+0.047
- 43.8%Success rate45.0%
- -0.007EPA / dropback+0.185
- +0.027EPA / rush-0.152
- 7.8%Explosive rate9.7%
- -0.45CPOE+2.96
- 43.3%Third-down rate44.1%
- 57.4%Red-zone TD rate57.2%
- 1.85Points / drive2.02
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
Meetings average 47.9 points. ATL are 7-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 20/30 | 176 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Morris | 11 | 53 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 6 | 42 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Rod Smith | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Darren McFadden | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Witten | 7 | 7 | 59 | 0 |
| Dez Bryant | 4 | 8 | 39 | 0 |
| Brice Butler | 1 | 1 | 30 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 4 | 6 | 15 | 0 |
| Terrance Williams | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 22/29 | 215 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tevin Coleman | 20 | 83 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Terron Ward | 9 | 23 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Gabriel | 3 | 3 | 58 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 6 | 8 | 57 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 6 | 6 | 49 | 1 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 3 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Levine Toilolo | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Justin Hardy | 2 | 2 | 7 | 1 |
| Tevin Coleman | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Marvin Hall | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.5%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.03
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.77