2017 · Week 10

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

7·27

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -3.5

Total

49

Model margin

+2.8est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapFalcons
  • +0.008EPA / play+0.047
  • 43.8%Success rate45.0%
  • -0.007EPA / dropback+0.185
  • +0.027EPA / rush-0.152
  • 7.8%Explosive rate9.7%
  • -0.45CPOE+2.96
  • 43.3%Third-down rate44.1%
  • 57.4%Red-zone TD rate57.2%
  • 1.85Points / drive2.02
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 6–6 since 1999

Meetings average 47.9 points. ATL are 7-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W9DAL @ ATL21–27ATL
2021 · W10ATL @ DAL3–43DAL
2020 · W2ATL @ DAL39–40DAL
2018 · W11DAL @ ATL22–19DAL
2015 · W3ATL @ DAL39–28ATL
2012 · W9DAL @ ATL13–19ATL
2009 · W7ATL @ DAL21–37DAL
2006 · W15DAL @ ATL38–28DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–ATL
DALQ1 15:001128Punt0–0
ATLQ1 9:0933Turnover0–0
DALQ1 7:49421Touchdown7–0
ATLQ1 6:191045Field goal7–3
DALQ2 15:00732Punt7–3
ATLQ2 10:57720Punt7–3
DALQ2 6:5544Punt7–3
ATLQ2 4:561056Touchdown7–10
DALQ2 1:31941Turnover7–10
ATLQ2 0:0820End of half7–10
ATLQ3 15:001185Touchdown7–17
DALQ3 8:26950Missed field goal7–17
ATLQ3 2:29772Touchdown7–24
DALQ4 13:483-9Punt7–24
ATLQ4 12:23746Field goal7–27
DALQ4 8:281352Turnover on downs7–27
ATLQ4 4:113-2Punt7–27
DALQ4 3:4820Turnover7–27
ATLQ4 3:20511Turnover on downs7–27
DALQ4 1:01214End of half7–27

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott20/3017600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Morris11534.80
Dak Prescott6427.01
Rod Smith3144.70
Darren McFadden1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jason Witten77590
Dez Bryant48390
Brice Butler11300
Cole Beasley23230
Rod Smith46150
Terrance Williams1490

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan22/2921521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tevin Coleman20834.21
Terron Ward9232.60
Taylor Gabriel11515.00
Devonta Freeman231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Taylor Gabriel33580
Julio Jones68570
Austin Hooper66491
Mohamed Sanu35290
Levine Toilolo11100
Justin Hardy2271
Tevin Coleman1150
Marvin Hall0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.5%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.03
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.77