Closing spread
ATL -3.5
Total
50
Model margin
+2.3est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.009EPA / play+0.083
- 43.9%Success rate46.6%
- +0.051EPA / dropback+0.200
- -0.060EPA / rush-0.160
- 8.9%Explosive rate9.6%
- +1.03CPOE+4.21
- 41.3%Third-down rate45.1%
- 57.5%Red-zone TD rate72.2%
- 1.93Points / drive2.34
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
Meetings average 47.9 points. ATL are 7-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 22/32 | 208 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 23 | 122 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Dak Prescott | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 1 |
| Rod Smith | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 7 | 8 | 79 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 5 | 7 | 51 | 0 |
| Amari Cooper | 3 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Geoff Swaim | 4 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Michael Gallup | 1 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 24/34 | 291 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tevin Coleman | 8 | 58 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Ito Smith | 6 | 10 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Calvin Ridley | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Marvin Hall | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 6 | 9 | 118 | 1 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 4 | 6 | 56 | 0 |
| Calvin Ridley | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 4 | 8 | 27 | 0 |
| Logan Paulsen | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Ito Smith | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.2%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.54
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.28