2018 · Week 11

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

22·19

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · open · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -3.5

Total

50

Model margin

+2.3est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapFalcons
  • +0.009EPA / play+0.083
  • 43.9%Success rate46.6%
  • +0.051EPA / dropback+0.200
  • -0.060EPA / rush-0.160
  • 8.9%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +1.03CPOE+4.21
  • 41.3%Third-down rate45.1%
  • 57.5%Red-zone TD rate72.2%
  • 1.93Points / drive2.34
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 6–6 since 1999

Meetings average 47.9 points. ATL are 7-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W9DAL @ ATL21–27ATL
2021 · W10ATL @ DAL3–43DAL
2020 · W2ATL @ DAL39–40DAL
2017 · W10DAL @ ATL7–27ATL
2015 · W3ATL @ DAL39–28ATL
2012 · W9DAL @ ATL13–19ATL
2009 · W7ATL @ DAL21–37DAL
2006 · W15DAL @ ATL38–28DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–ATL
ATLQ1 15:00829Punt0–0
DALQ1 10:191580Field goal3–0
ATLQ1 2:56652Field goal3–3
DALQ2 14:5234Punt3–3
ATLQ2 13:49919Punt3–3
DALQ2 8:0958Punt3–3
ATLQ2 4:421043Field goal3–6
DALQ2 0:29318End of half3–6
DALQ3 15:00743Field goal6–6
ATLQ3 10:1500Field goal6–6
ATLQ3 10:11223Field goal6–6
ATLQ3 9:02424Field goal6–9
DALQ3 7:121473Touchdown12–9
ATLQ4 14:19324Turnover12–9
DALQ4 13:07231Touchdown19–9
ATLQ4 12:26872Field goal19–12
DALQ4 8:26615Punt19–12
ATLQ4 4:02668Touchdown19–19
DALQ4 1:52951Field goal22–19

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott22/3220800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott231225.31
Dak Prescott451.31
Rod Smith100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ezekiel Elliott78790
Cole Beasley57510
Amari Cooper35360
Geoff Swaim45240
Michael Gallup15100
Rod Smith2280

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan24/3429111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tevin Coleman8587.30
Ito Smith6101.70
Calvin Ridley155.00
Mohamed Sanu133.00
Marvin Hall133.00
Matt Ryan111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones691181
Mohamed Sanu46560
Calvin Ridley34320
Tevin Coleman33270
Austin Hooper48270
Logan Paulsen22190
Ito Smith22120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

2.53%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.2%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.54
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.28