Closing spread
DAL -3
Total
53
Model margin
+5.8est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.042EPA / play-0.029
- 44.3%Success rate46.1%
- +0.145EPA / dropback-0.004
- -0.148EPA / rush-0.073
- 8.0%Explosive rate7.8%
- +1.23CPOE-1.42
- 43.8%Third-down rate41.5%
- 55.3%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
- 2.28Points / drive1.87
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
Meetings average 47.9 points. DAL are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 24/36 | 273 | 4 | 0 |
| Russell Gage | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 21 | 61 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Ito Smith | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Brian Hill | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Ridley | 7 | 10 | 109 | 2 |
| Hayden Hurst | 5 | 8 | 72 | 1 |
| Russell Gage | 6 | 9 | 46 | 1 |
| Julio Jones | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Brian Hill | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 34/47 | 450 | 1 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 22 | 89 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Dak Prescott | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 3 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 6 | 9 | 106 | 0 |
| Amari Cooper | 6 | 9 | 100 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 9 | 10 | 88 | 1 |
| Michael Gallup | 2 | 5 | 58 | 0 |
| Blake Bell | 2 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 6 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| Noah Brown | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
7.39%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.3%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.30
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+2.75
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.75