2020 · Week 2

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

39·40

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

DAL -3

Total

53

Model margin

+5.8est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapCowboys
  • +0.042EPA / play-0.029
  • 44.3%Success rate46.1%
  • +0.145EPA / dropback-0.004
  • -0.148EPA / rush-0.073
  • 8.0%Explosive rate7.8%
  • +1.23CPOE-1.42
  • 43.8%Third-down rate41.5%
  • 55.3%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
  • 2.28Points / drive1.87
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 6–6 since 1999

Meetings average 47.9 points. DAL are 5-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W9DAL @ ATL21–27ATL
2021 · W10ATL @ DAL3–43DAL
2018 · W11DAL @ ATL22–19DAL
2017 · W10DAL @ ATL7–27ATL
2015 · W3ATL @ DAL39–28ATL
2012 · W9DAL @ ATL13–19ATL
2009 · W7ATL @ DAL21–37DAL
2006 · W15DAL @ ATL38–28DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–DAL
ATLQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
DALQ1 13:3336Punt0–0
ATLQ1 12:4735Punt0–0
DALQ1 11:503-2Turnover6–0
ATLQ1 11:06122Touchdown7–0
DALQ1 10:58430Turnover7–0
ATLQ1 9:26452Touchdown14–0
DALQ1 7:37516Turnover on downs14–0
ATLQ1 5:5235Field goal17–0
DALQ1 4:2618Turnover17–0
ATLQ1 4:10718Field goal20–0
DALQ1 1:061170Touchdown20–7
ATLQ2 12:091260Touchdown26–7
DALQ2 5:581175Field goal26–10
ATLQ2 1:46756Field goal29–10
DALQ2 0:0200End of half29–10
DALQ3 15:00774Touchdown29–17
ATLQ3 12:23933Punt29–17
DALQ3 7:01882Touchdown29–24
ATLQ3 4:141174Touchdown36–24
DALQ4 14:23519Turnover on downs36–24
ATLQ4 12:46935Field goal39–24
DALQ4 7:571075Touchdown39–30
ATLQ4 4:57512Punt39–30
DALQ4 2:571091Touchdown39–37
ATLQ4 1:4900Field goal39–37
DALQ4 1:48426Field goal39–40

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan24/3627340
Russell Gage0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Todd Gurley21612.90
Ito Smith5204.00
Matt Ryan4164.00
Brian Hill3144.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Ridley7101092
Hayden Hurst58721
Russell Gage69461
Julio Jones24240
Brian Hill22110
Olamide Zaccheaus11100

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott34/4745010
Andy Dalton0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott22894.01
Dak Prescott5183.63
CeeDee Lamb199.00
Tony Pollard263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
CeeDee Lamb691060
Amari Cooper691000
Dalton Schultz910881
Michael Gallup25580
Blake Bell23340
Ezekiel Elliott67330
Noah Brown22280
Tony Pollard1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.3%6.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

7.39%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.3%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.30
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.75
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.75