2009 · Week 7

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

21·37

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

Cowboys Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

DAL -5.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+4.0est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapCowboys
  • +0.041EPA / play+0.089
  • 43.4%Success rate45.5%
  • +0.093EPA / dropback+0.176
  • -0.036EPA / rush-0.041
  • 8.0%Explosive rate11.3%
  • -1.75CPOE+0.70
  • 42.8%Third-down rate40.5%
  • 59.8%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
  • 1.97Points / drive1.77
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 6–6 since 1999

Meetings average 47.9 points. DAL are 5-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W9DAL @ ATL21–27ATL
2021 · W10ATL @ DAL3–43DAL
2020 · W2ATL @ DAL39–40DAL
2018 · W11DAL @ ATL22–19DAL
2017 · W10DAL @ ATL7–27ATL
2015 · W3ATL @ DAL39–28ATL
2012 · W9DAL @ ATL13–19ATL
2006 · W15DAL @ ATL38–28DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–DAL
ATLQ1 15:001680Touchdown7–0
DALQ1 6:263-1Punt7–0
ATLQ1 5:134-9Punt7–0
DALQ1 3:54319Punt7–0
ATLQ1 1:3034Punt7–0
DALQ2 14:50646Field goal7–3
ATLQ2 11:03626Turnover7–3
DALQ2 8:54211Turnover7–3
ATLQ2 8:10512Turnover7–9
DALQ2 5:59159Touchdown7–10
ATLQ2 5:5037Punt7–10
DALQ2 4:091178Touchdown7–17
ATLQ2 0:0600End of half7–17
DALQ3 15:00617Punt7–17
ATLQ3 11:581382Touchdown14–17
DALQ3 5:26790Touchdown14–24
ATLQ3 2:3233Punt14–24
DALQ3 0:511159Field goal14–27
ATLQ4 10:1038Opp touchdown14–34
ATLQ4 8:381085Touchdown21–34
DALQ4 5:07627Field goal21–37
ATLQ4 2:2110Turnover21–37
DALQ4 2:09111End of half21–37

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan19/3519822

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Turner18502.81
Matt Ryan166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Roddy White611501
Tony Gonzalez47370
Eric Weems22331
Brian Finneran23220
Michael Jenkins24220
Marty Booker11140

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo21/2931130

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marion Barber14473.40
Felix Jones8374.60
Tony Romo6315.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Miles Austin681712
Jason Witten57530
Martellus Bennett33320
Tashard Choice11230
Roy Williams15160
Patrick Crayton2291
Felix Jones2260
Marion Barber1110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

3.17%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.8%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.97
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+4.02