Closing spread
DAL -5.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+4.0est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.041EPA / play+0.089
- 43.4%Success rate45.5%
- +0.093EPA / dropback+0.176
- -0.036EPA / rush-0.041
- 8.0%Explosive rate11.3%
- -1.75CPOE+0.70
- 42.8%Third-down rate40.5%
- 59.8%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
- 1.97Points / drive1.77
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
Meetings average 47.9 points. DAL are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 19/35 | 198 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 18 | 50 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roddy White | 6 | 11 | 50 | 1 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 4 | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| Eric Weems | 2 | 2 | 33 | 1 |
| Brian Finneran | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Michael Jenkins | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Marty Booker | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 21/29 | 311 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion Barber | 14 | 47 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 8 | 37 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 6 | 31 | 5.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Austin | 6 | 8 | 171 | 2 |
| Jason Witten | 5 | 7 | 53 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Roy Williams | 1 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Patrick Crayton | 2 | 2 | 9 | 1 |
| Felix Jones | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
3.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.8%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.97
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+4.02