2024 · Week 9

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

21·27

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Kirk Cousins

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -3

Total

52

Model margin

+3.1est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapFalcons
  • -0.089EPA / play+0.041
  • 41.4%Success rate48.4%
  • -0.067EPA / dropback+0.083
  • -0.128EPA / rush-0.015
  • 7.7%Explosive rate9.7%
  • -4.87CPOE-0.01
  • 37.1%Third-down rate39.1%
  • 51.7%Red-zone TD rate56.8%
  • 1.68Points / drive2.10
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 6–6 since 1999

Meetings average 47.9 points. ATL are 7-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · W10ATL @ DAL3–43DAL
2020 · W2ATL @ DAL39–40DAL
2018 · W11DAL @ ATL22–19DAL
2017 · W10DAL @ ATL7–27ATL
2015 · W3ATL @ DAL39–28ATL
2012 · W9DAL @ ATL13–19ATL
2009 · W7ATL @ DAL21–37DAL
2006 · W15DAL @ ATL38–28DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–ATL
ATLQ1 15:00412Punt0–0
DALQ1 13:04659Field goal3–0
ATLQ1 9:32778Touchdown3–7
DALQ1 5:233-3Punt3–7
ATLQ1 3:14716Turnover3–7
DALQ2 14:16620Turnover on downs3–7
ATLQ2 11:18663Touchdown3–14
DALQ2 8:28979Touchdown10–14
ATLQ2 4:01612Punt10–14
DALQ2 1:06520Turnover on downs10–14
DALQ3 15:00413Turnover on downs10–14
ATLQ3 13:10538Touchdown10–21
DALQ3 10:23426Punt10–21
ATLQ3 7:42628Punt10–21
DALQ3 4:11932Field goal13–21
ATLQ4 15:00766Touchdown13–27
DALQ4 11:08616Punt13–27
ATLQ4 9:2233Punt13–27
DALQ4 7:52930Turnover on downs13–27
ATLQ4 5:2035Punt13–27
DALQ4 4:561486Touchdown21–27
ATLQ4 1:2800End of half21–27

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott18/2413310
Cooper Rush13/2511510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rico Dowdle12756.30
Dak Prescott33010.00
CeeDee Lamb2157.50
Dalvin Cook284.00
Hunter Luepke155.00
Cooper Rush144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jake Ferguson710710
CeeDee Lamb812470
KaVontae Turpin34360
Rico Dowdle56321
Jalen Brooks25260
Jalen Tolbert36191
Ryan Flournoy12130
Hunter Luepke2240

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins19/2422230

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bijan Robinson19864.50
Tyler Allgeier6183.01
Ray-Ray McCloud177.00
Kirk Cousins4-11-2.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darnell Mooney59881
Bijan Robinson77590
Ray-Ray McCloud33281
Drake London22271
Kyle Pitts11110
KhaDarel Hodge1290

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.5%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.32
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.89
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.13