Closing spread
ATL -3
Total
52
Model margin
+3.1est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.089EPA / play+0.041
- 41.4%Success rate48.4%
- -0.067EPA / dropback+0.083
- -0.128EPA / rush-0.015
- 7.7%Explosive rate9.7%
- -4.87CPOE-0.01
- 37.1%Third-down rate39.1%
- 51.7%Red-zone TD rate56.8%
- 1.68Points / drive2.10
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
Meetings average 47.9 points. ATL are 7-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 18/24 | 133 | 1 | 0 |
| Cooper Rush | 13/25 | 115 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rico Dowdle | 12 | 75 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 3 | 30 | 10.0 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Hunter Luepke | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Cooper Rush | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Ferguson | 7 | 10 | 71 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 8 | 12 | 47 | 0 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Rico Dowdle | 5 | 6 | 32 | 1 |
| Jalen Brooks | 2 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Jalen Tolbert | 3 | 6 | 19 | 1 |
| Ryan Flournoy | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Hunter Luepke | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 19/24 | 222 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 19 | 86 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 4 | -11 | -2.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnell Mooney | 5 | 9 | 88 | 1 |
| Bijan Robinson | 7 | 7 | 59 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 3 | 3 | 28 | 1 |
| Drake London | 2 | 2 | 27 | 1 |
| Kyle Pitts | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.5%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.32
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.89
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.13