Closing spread
DAL -8
Total
55
Model margin
+6.8est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.076EPA / play+0.084
- 41.2%Success rate46.8%
- -0.028EPA / dropback+0.168
- -0.162EPA / rush-0.062
- 8.2%Explosive rate9.4%
- +0.85CPOE+1.99
- 38.5%Third-down rate43.7%
- 52.7%Red-zone TD rate61.6%
- 1.58Points / drive2.44
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
Meetings average 47.9 points. DAL are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 9/21 | 117 | 0 | 2 |
| Josh Rosen | 1/6 | 14 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne Gallman | 15 | 55 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 4 | 25 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Pitts | 4 | 7 | 60 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 2 | 7 | 22 | 0 |
| Wayne Gallman | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Frank Darby | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tajae Sharpe | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Blake | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Russell Gage | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 24/31 | 296 | 2 | 0 |
| Cooper Rush | 3/3 | 17 | 0 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 1/1 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 11 | 42 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 14 | 41 | 2.9 | 2 |
| Corey Clement | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Cooper Rush | 3 | -6 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 6 | 7 | 94 | 2 |
| Tony Pollard | 6 | 7 | 56 | 0 |
| Amari Cooper | 4 | 4 | 51 | 0 |
| Michael Gallup | 3 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Noah Brown | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Sean McKeon | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Malik Turner | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Corey Clement | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.24%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.8%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.04
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.75