2021 · Week 10

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

3·43

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -8

Total

55

Model margin

+6.8est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapCowboys
  • -0.076EPA / play+0.084
  • 41.2%Success rate46.8%
  • -0.028EPA / dropback+0.168
  • -0.162EPA / rush-0.062
  • 8.2%Explosive rate9.4%
  • +0.85CPOE+1.99
  • 38.5%Third-down rate43.7%
  • 52.7%Red-zone TD rate61.6%
  • 1.58Points / drive2.44
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 6–6 since 1999

Meetings average 47.9 points. DAL are 5-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W9DAL @ ATL21–27ATL
2020 · W2ATL @ DAL39–40DAL
2018 · W11DAL @ ATL22–19DAL
2017 · W10DAL @ ATL7–27ATL
2015 · W3ATL @ DAL39–28ATL
2012 · W9DAL @ ATL13–19ATL
2009 · W7ATL @ DAL21–37DAL
2006 · W15DAL @ ATL38–28DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–DAL
DALQ1 15:00873Touchdown0–7
ATLQ1 11:42758Field goal3–7
DALQ1 8:2432Punt3–7
ATLQ1 6:48736Turnover on downs3–7
DALQ1 4:051363Touchdown3–14
ATLQ2 13:2435Punt3–14
DALQ2 11:56868Touchdown3–21
ATLQ2 8:073-10Punt3–21
DALQ2 5:481059Touchdown3–28
ATLQ2 1:103-8Opp touchdown3–36
ATLQ2 0:372-4End of half3–36
ATLQ3 15:0038Punt3–36
DALQ3 13:5734Punt3–36
ATLQ3 12:28746Turnover3–36
DALQ3 9:45662Turnover3–36
ATLQ3 6:33316Turnover3–36
DALQ3 5:281167Touchdown3–43
ATLQ3 0:31425Turnover3–43
DALQ4 13:33419Punt3–43
ATLQ4 11:1538Punt3–43
DALQ4 9:5448Punt3–43
ATLQ4 7:16934Turnover on downs3–43
DALQ4 4:05312End of half3–43

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan9/2111702
Josh Rosen1/61401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Wayne Gallman15553.70
Cordarrelle Patterson4256.30
Mike Davis4184.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kyle Pitts47600
Olamide Zaccheaus27220
Wayne Gallman12210
Cordarrelle Patterson12140
Frank Darby13140
Mike Davis0100
Tajae Sharpe1100
Christian Blake0100
Russell Gage0300

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott24/3129620
Cooper Rush3/31700
Ezekiel Elliott1/1400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tony Pollard11423.80
Ezekiel Elliott14412.92
Corey Clement6203.30
CeeDee Lamb11212.00
Dak Prescott252.51
Cooper Rush3-6-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
CeeDee Lamb67942
Tony Pollard67560
Amari Cooper44510
Michael Gallup35420
Noah Brown11180
Ezekiel Elliott33150
Sean McKeon22150
Dalton Schultz12140
Malik Turner1170
Corey Clement1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +83.1%6.0%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%2.6%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

2.24%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.8%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.04
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.75