2012 · Week 9

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

13·19

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -4

Total

47

Model margin

+5.5est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapFalcons
  • +0.043EPA / play+0.091
  • 47.2%Success rate46.4%
  • +0.127EPA / dropback+0.234
  • -0.133EPA / rush-0.192
  • 7.3%Explosive rate7.3%
  • +3.18CPOE+5.71
  • 43.3%Third-down rate44.9%
  • 62.6%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
  • 1.79Points / drive2.31
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 6–6 since 1999

Meetings average 47.9 points. ATL are 7-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W9DAL @ ATL21–27ATL
2021 · W10ATL @ DAL3–43DAL
2020 · W2ATL @ DAL39–40DAL
2018 · W11DAL @ ATL22–19DAL
2017 · W10DAL @ ATL7–27ATL
2015 · W3ATL @ DAL39–28ATL
2009 · W7ATL @ DAL21–37DAL
2006 · W15DAL @ ATL38–28DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–ATL
ATLQ1 15:0031Punt0–0
DALQ1 13:53627Field goal3–0
ATLQ1 10:46951Missed field goal3–0
DALQ1 6:15769Field goal6–0
ATLQ1 3:42746Field goal6–3
DALQ2 14:151040Missed field goal6–3
ATLQ2 9:34620Punt6–3
DALQ2 6:14846Punt6–3
ATLQ2 1:03660Field goal6–6
DALQ3 15:00633Punt6–6
ATLQ3 11:41961Missed field goal6–6
DALQ3 6:43718Punt6–6
ATLQ3 2:39681Touchdown6–13
DALQ4 14:1637Punt6–13
ATLQ4 12:39862Field goal6–16
DALQ4 7:49678Touchdown13–16
ATLQ4 5:211371Field goal13–19
DALQ4 0:17459End of half13–19

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo25/3532110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Felix Jones9394.30
Lance Dunbar8263.30
Phillip Tanner100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kevin Ogletree34961
Miles Austin79760
Felix Jones55700
Jason Witten78510
Dez Bryant14150
Cole Beasley1280
Lance Dunbar0200

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan24/3434200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Turner201025.11
Matt Ryan188.00
Julio Jones188.00
Jacquizz Rodgers300.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones561290
Roddy White7101180
Jacquizz Rodgers45530
Tony Gonzalez45360
Michael Palmer1150
Michael Turner0100
Harry Douglas0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.5%

Expected total

47.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.97
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.46