Closing spread
ATL -4
Total
47
Model margin
+5.5est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.043EPA / play+0.091
- 47.2%Success rate46.4%
- +0.127EPA / dropback+0.234
- -0.133EPA / rush-0.192
- 7.3%Explosive rate7.3%
- +3.18CPOE+5.71
- 43.3%Third-down rate44.9%
- 62.6%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
- 1.79Points / drive2.31
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
Meetings average 47.9 points. ATL are 7-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 25/35 | 321 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Felix Jones | 9 | 39 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Lance Dunbar | 8 | 26 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Phillip Tanner | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Ogletree | 3 | 4 | 96 | 1 |
| Miles Austin | 7 | 9 | 76 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 5 | 5 | 70 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 7 | 8 | 51 | 0 |
| Dez Bryant | 1 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Lance Dunbar | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 24/34 | 342 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 20 | 102 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 5 | 6 | 129 | 0 |
| Roddy White | 7 | 10 | 118 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 4 | 5 | 53 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 4 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Michael Palmer | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Michael Turner | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.5%
Expected total
47.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.97
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.46