Closing spread
TEN -16
Total
40
Model margin
+6.8est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
1.7%est.
Win probability
- Titans
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.110EPA / play+0.007
- 35.3%Success rate40.1%
- -0.079EPA / dropback+0.067
- -0.177EPA / rush-0.083
- 6.6%Explosive rate8.5%
- 29.7%Third-down rate39.0%
- 74.3%Red-zone TD rate58.0%
- 1.12Points / drive1.52
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.1%
- +0.100EPA / play allowed-0.042
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 11–7 since 1999
Meetings average 46.8 points. TEN are 8-9-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Couch | 12/24 | 134 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Couch | 5 | 40 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Terry Kirby | 10 | 40 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Sedrick Shaw | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Johnson | 4 | 4 | 62 | 1 |
| Mark Campbell | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Terry Kirby | 2 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Sedrick Shaw | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Leslie Shepherd | 1 | 6 | 7 | 0 |
| Irv Smith | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Darrin Chiaverini | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neil O'Donnell | 31/40 | 310 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 31 | 97 | 3.1 | 2 |
| Rodney Thomas | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Neil O'Donnell | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yancey Thigpen | 6 | 9 | 84 | 1 |
| Frank Wycheck | 9 | 10 | 80 | 0 |
| Kevin Dyson | 5 | 7 | 52 | 0 |
| Eddie George | 4 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Chris Sanders | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Jackie Harris | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Rodney Thomas | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Michael Roan | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
1.66%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.8%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.08
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.12
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.76