Closing spread
CLE -4.5
Total
33.5
Model margin
+4.8est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.148EPA / play-0.176
- 37.9%Success rate35.2%
- -0.165EPA / dropback-0.212
- -0.117EPA / rush-0.115
- 7.3%Explosive rate6.1%
- -3.50CPOE-5.66
- 32.0%Third-down rate33.8%
- 58.5%Red-zone TD rate48.2%
- 1.36Points / drive1.18
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 11–7 since 1999
Meetings average 46.8 points. CLE are 9-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Ward | 14/28 | 117 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 25 | 161 | 6.4 | 2 |
| Tyjae Spears | 8 | 19 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Cam Ward | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyjae Spears | 2 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Chimere Dike | 5 | 8 | 24 | 1 |
| Chig Okonkwo | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Elic Ayomanor | 1 | 3 | 14 | 1 |
| Gunnar Helm | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| David Martin-Robinson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| James Proche | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shedeur Sanders | 23/42 | 364 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shedeur Sanders | 3 | 29 | 9.7 | 1 |
| Quinshon Judkins | 14 | 26 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Dylan Sampson | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Malachi Corley | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 8 | 11 | 114 | 1 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 3 | 5 | 76 | 1 |
| Dylan Sampson | 5 | 6 | 64 | 0 |
| Quinshon Judkins | 1 | 3 | 58 | 0 |
| Cedric Tillman | 1 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Gage Larvadain | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Jerome Ford | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Blake Whiteheart | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Bond | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.7%
Expected total
41.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.04
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.75