2025 · Week 14

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Cam Ward

31·29

Browns

Cleveland

QB Shedeur Sanders

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 33°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

CLE -4.5

Total

33.5

Model margin

+4.8est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapBrowns
  • -0.148EPA / play-0.176
  • 37.9%Success rate35.2%
  • -0.165EPA / dropback-0.212
  • -0.117EPA / rush-0.115
  • 7.3%Explosive rate6.1%
  • -3.50CPOE-5.66
  • 32.0%Third-down rate33.8%
  • 58.5%Red-zone TD rate48.2%
  • 1.36Points / drive1.18
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 11–8 since 1999

Meetings average 47 points. CLE are 10-8-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7CLE @ TEN27–24CLE
2023 · W3TEN @ CLE3–27CLE
2020 · W13CLE @ TEN41–35CLE
2019 · W1TEN @ CLE43–13TEN
2017 · W7TEN @ CLE12–9TEN
2016 · W6CLE @ TEN26–28TEN
2015 · W2TEN @ CLE14–28CLE
2014 · W5CLE @ TEN29–28CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–CLE
TENQ1 15:00853Touchdown7–0
CLEQ1 9:523-3Punt7–0
TENQ1 7:07822Turnover7–0
CLEQ1 3:45419Field goal7–3
TENQ1 1:42165Touchdown14–3
CLEQ1 1:29460Touchdown14–10
TENQ2 14:24615Punt14–10
CLEQ2 11:391057Punt14–10
TENQ2 6:45518Punt14–10
CLEQ2 3:42374Touchdown14–17
TENQ2 2:4759Punt14–17
CLEQ2 0:2612End of half14–17
CLEQ3 15:00726Punt14–17
TENQ3 11:3733Punt14–17
CLEQ3 9:5837Punt14–17
TENQ3 8:2337Punt14–17
CLEQ3 7:3534Punt14–17
TENQ3 5:56618Punt14–17
CLEQ3 3:12535Turnover14–17
TENQ3 1:41238Touchdown21–17
CLEQ3 0:513-13Punt21–17
TENQ4 13:51730Punt21–17
CLEQ4 11:0715Turnover21–17
TENQ4 10:5438Touchdown28–17
CLEQ4 9:29623Punt28–17
TENQ4 8:2436Field goal31–17
CLEQ4 6:17753Touchdown31–23
TENQ4 4:2730Punt31–23
CLEQ4 2:43763Touchdown31–29
TENQ4 1:0330End of half31–29

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Ward14/2811721

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tony Pollard251616.42
Tyjae Spears8192.40
Cam Ward242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyjae Spears24280
Chimere Dike58241
Chig Okonkwo22200
Van Jefferson24170
Elic Ayomanor13141
Gunnar Helm1280
David Martin-Robinson1160
James Proche0100

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Shedeur Sanders23/4236431

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shedeur Sanders3299.71
Quinshon Judkins14261.90
Dylan Sampson242.00
Malachi Corley122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Harold Fannin Jr.8111141
Jerry Jeudy35761
Dylan Sampson56640
Quinshon Judkins13580
Cedric Tillman13230
Gage Larvadain23180
Jerome Ford23100
David Njoku1111
Blake Whiteheart0100
Isaiah Bond0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.53.5%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.7%

Expected total

41.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.04
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.75