2016 · Week 6

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Cody Kessler

26·28

Titans

Tennessee

QB Marcus Mariota

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 75°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

TEN -7.5

Total

45

Model margin

+4.4est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapTitans
  • -0.050EPA / play+0.037
  • 39.2%Success rate45.5%
  • -0.011EPA / dropback+0.103
  • -0.131EPA / rush-0.049
  • 9.2%Explosive rate10.3%
  • -1.42CPOE+1.12
  • 36.2%Third-down rate45.6%
  • 57.8%Red-zone TD rate75.2%
  • 1.37Points / drive1.72
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 11–8 since 1999

Meetings average 47 points. TEN are 8-10-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7CLE @ TEN27–24CLE
2025 · W14TEN @ CLE31–29TEN
2023 · W3TEN @ CLE3–27CLE
2020 · W13CLE @ TEN41–35CLE
2019 · W1TEN @ CLE43–13TEN
2017 · W7TEN @ CLE12–9TEN
2015 · W2TEN @ CLE14–28CLE
2014 · W5CLE @ TEN29–28CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–TEN
TENQ1 15:00975Touchdown0–7
CLEQ1 10:37448Field goal3–7
TENQ1 8:4737Punt3–7
CLEQ1 7:01937Field goal6–7
TENQ1 2:0838Punt6–7
CLEQ1 0:393-5Punt6–7
TENQ2 14:07459Touchdown6–14
CLEQ2 11:5132Punt6–14
TENQ2 10:01519Punt6–14
CLEQ2 7:4533Punt6–14
TENQ2 6:3337Punt6–14
CLEQ2 4:29999Touchdown13–14
TENQ2 0:40740Missed field goal13–14
CLEQ3 15:00413Punt13–14
TENQ3 13:09785Touchdown13–21
CLEQ3 9:3334Punt13–21
TENQ3 7:50521Punt13–21
CLEQ3 4:13310Punt13–21
TENQ3 1:1337Turnover13–21
CLEQ4 14:453-5Punt13–21
TENQ4 13:421280Touchdown13–28
CLEQ4 6:431380Touchdown19–28
TENQ4 2:0700Touchdown19–28
CLEQ4 2:05955Touchdown26–28
TENQ4 0:2700End of half26–28

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cody Kessler26/4133620
Terrelle Pryor1/1100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Duke Johnson4184.51
Isaiah Crowell9161.80
Terrelle Pryor133.00
Cody Kessler133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terrelle Pryor913752
Ricardo Louis59650
Gary Barnidge35590
Duke Johnson46560
Andrew Hawkins34480
Isaiah Crowell22200
Rashard Higgins11140
Jordan Payton0200

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota17/2428431

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeMarco Murray21653.11
Marcus Mariota7649.10
Derrick Henry273.50
Tajae Sharpe111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kendall Wright891331
Rishard Matthews33701
Phillip Supernaw22250
Delanie Walker12210
Derrick Henry22200
Anthony Fasano11151
DeMarco Murray0200
Tajae Sharpe0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

2.17%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.8%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.64
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.38