Closing spread
TEN -7.5
Total
45
Model margin
+4.4est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.050EPA / play+0.037
- 39.2%Success rate45.5%
- -0.011EPA / dropback+0.103
- -0.131EPA / rush-0.049
- 9.2%Explosive rate10.3%
- -1.42CPOE+1.12
- 36.2%Third-down rate45.6%
- 57.8%Red-zone TD rate75.2%
- 1.37Points / drive1.72
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 11–7 since 1999
Meetings average 46.8 points. TEN are 8-9-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Kessler | 26/41 | 336 | 2 | 0 |
| Terrelle Pryor | 1/1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke Johnson | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 9 | 16 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Terrelle Pryor | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Cody Kessler | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrelle Pryor | 9 | 13 | 75 | 2 |
| Ricardo Louis | 5 | 9 | 65 | 0 |
| Gary Barnidge | 3 | 5 | 59 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 4 | 6 | 56 | 0 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 3 | 4 | 48 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Rashard Higgins | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Jordan Payton | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 17/24 | 284 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 21 | 65 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Marcus Mariota | 7 | 64 | 9.1 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Tajae Sharpe | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendall Wright | 8 | 9 | 133 | 1 |
| Rishard Matthews | 3 | 3 | 70 | 1 |
| Phillip Supernaw | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 1 | 1 | 15 | 1 |
| DeMarco Murray | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Tajae Sharpe | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
2.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.8%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.64
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.38