Closing spread
TEN -4
Total
54
Model margin
+1.9est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.091EPA / play+0.189
- 46.9%Success rate50.8%
- +0.193EPA / dropback+0.297
- -0.034EPA / rush+0.070
- 11.2%Explosive rate10.3%
- +2.55CPOE+2.16
- 45.5%Third-down rate47.4%
- 71.8%Red-zone TD rate76.8%
- 2.32Points / drive2.85
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 11–7 since 1999
Meetings average 46.8 points. TEN are 8-9-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 25/33 | 334 | 4 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 1/1 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 18 | 80 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Kareem Hunt | 14 | 33 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Higgins | 6 | 9 | 95 | 1 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 2 | 3 | 92 | 1 |
| Jarvis Landry | 8 | 10 | 62 | 1 |
| Nick Chubb | 1 | 1 | 26 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 29/45 | 389 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 15 | 60 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 1 |
| Cameron Batson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Davis | 11 | 12 | 182 | 1 |
| A.J. Brown | 4 | 7 | 87 | 0 |
| Anthony Firkser | 5 | 7 | 51 | 0 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 1 | 2 | 22 | 1 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Cameron Batson | 3 | 3 | 14 | 1 |
| Adam Humphries | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Geoff Swaim | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.2%
Expected total
47.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.19
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.89