2020 · Week 13

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Baker Mayfield

41·35

Titans

Tennessee

QB Ryan Tannehill

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 52°F · wind 1mph

Closing spread

TEN -4

Total

54

Model margin

+1.9est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapTitans
  • +0.091EPA / play+0.189
  • 46.9%Success rate50.8%
  • +0.193EPA / dropback+0.297
  • -0.034EPA / rush+0.070
  • 11.2%Explosive rate10.3%
  • +2.55CPOE+2.16
  • 45.5%Third-down rate47.4%
  • 71.8%Red-zone TD rate76.8%
  • 2.32Points / drive2.85
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 11–8 since 1999

Meetings average 47 points. TEN are 8-10-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7CLE @ TEN27–24CLE
2025 · W14TEN @ CLE31–29TEN
2023 · W3TEN @ CLE3–27CLE
2019 · W1TEN @ CLE43–13TEN
2017 · W7TEN @ CLE12–9TEN
2016 · W6CLE @ TEN26–28TEN
2015 · W2TEN @ CLE14–28CLE
2014 · W5CLE @ TEN29–28CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–TEN
CLEQ1 15:00771Field goal3–0
TENQ1 10:43630Turnover on downs3–0
CLEQ1 7:51952Touchdown10–0
TENQ1 3:191-2Turnover10–0
CLEQ1 3:09620Touchdown17–0
TENQ2 14:56474Touchdown17–7
CLEQ2 13:14175Touchdown24–7
TENQ2 13:0431Punt24–7
CLEQ2 11:241175Touchdown31–7
TENQ2 5:463-1Punt31–7
CLEQ2 4:17951Touchdown38–7
TENQ2 0:55546Turnover38–7
TENQ3 15:00375Touchdown38–13
CLEQ3 13:5247Punt38–13
TENQ3 11:18658Touchdown38–21
CLEQ3 9:08760Field goal41–21
TENQ3 5:291544Turnover41–21
CLEQ3 0:1533Punt41–21
TENQ4 14:023-2Punt41–21
CLEQ4 12:481034Punt41–21
TENQ4 5:4317100Touchdown41–28
CLEQ4 1:23411Turnover41–28
TENQ4 0:4848Touchdown41–35
CLEQ4 0:2800End of half41–35

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield25/3333440
Jarvis Landry1/1600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb18804.41
Kareem Hunt14332.40
Baker Mayfield451.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rashard Higgins69951
Donovan Peoples-Jones23921
Jarvis Landry810621
Nick Chubb11260
Austin Hooper22240
Kareem Hunt33240
Baker Mayfield1160
David Njoku1150
D'Ernest Johnson1150

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill29/4538931

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry15604.00
Jeremy McNichols221.01
Cameron Batson100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Corey Davis11121821
A.J. Brown47870
Anthony Firkser57510
MyCole Pruitt12221
Jeremy McNichols34150
Cameron Batson33141
Adam Humphries1490
Derrick Henry1190
Geoff Swaim0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +44.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

2.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.2%

Expected total

47.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.19
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.89