2026 · Week 7

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Deshaun Watson

27·24

Titans

Tennessee

QB Cam Ward

Nissan Stadium · outdoors

Closing spread

CLE -1.5

Total

36.5

Model margin

+0.2est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapTitans
  • -0.040EPA / play-0.124
  • 42.7%Success rate40.2%
  • +0.039EPA / dropback-0.123
  • -0.175EPA / rush-0.126
  • 7.8%Explosive rate6.3%
  • -1.22CPOE-0.37
  • 32.8%Third-down rate34.7%
  • 59.3%Red-zone TD rate47.4%
  • 1.65Points / drive1.42
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 11–8 since 1999

Meetings average 47 points. TEN are 8-10-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14TEN @ CLE31–29TEN
2023 · W3TEN @ CLE3–27CLE
2020 · W13CLE @ TEN41–35CLE
2019 · W1TEN @ CLE43–13TEN
2017 · W7TEN @ CLE12–9TEN
2016 · W6CLE @ TEN26–28TEN
2015 · W2TEN @ CLE14–28CLE
2014 · W5CLE @ TEN29–28CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–TEN
TENQ1 15:00675Touchdown0–7
CLEQ1 12:57521Turnover0–7
TENQ1 10:41424Touchdown0–14
CLEQ1 8:35673Touchdown7–14
TENQ1 5:3233Punt7–14
CLEQ1 4:1247Punt7–14
TENQ1 2:301450Turnover on downs7–14
CLEQ2 9:34639Turnover7–14
TENQ2 7:0710Turnover7–14
CLEQ2 7:01973Touchdown14–14
TENQ2 2:1734Punt14–14
CLEQ2 1:45964Field goal17–14
CLEQ3 15:00828Punt17–14
TENQ3 11:17617Turnover17–14
CLEQ3 8:2643Punt17–14
TENQ3 6:28630Punt17–14
CLEQ3 3:35862Missed field goal17–14
TENQ4 14:04956Field goal17–17
CLEQ4 8:41871Touchdown24–17
TENQ4 4:341163Touchdown24–24
CLEQ4 0:58350Field goal27–24

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson25/3630801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Quinshon Judkins17965.62
Dylan Sampson6457.50
KC Concepcion3237.70
Deshaun Watson3196.31

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
KC Concepcion8101290
Harold Fannin Jr.69910
Dylan Sampson33320
Denzel Boston38270
Jerry Jeudy44210
Quinshon Judkins1180

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Ward20/3118101

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tony Pollard251295.23
Michael Carter372.30
Cam Ward252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Carnell Tate57690
Elic Ayomanor37440
Tony Pollard33260
Gunnar Helm34240
Michael Carter1170
Wan'Dale Robinson4670
Daniel Bellinger1240

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.6%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.00
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.22