Closing spread
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Total
—
Model margin
+6.2est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Brownsedge mapTitans
- -0.206EPA / play-0.141
- 43.1%Success rate44.0%
- -0.257EPA / dropback-0.152
- -0.119EPA / rush-0.096
- 7.8%Explosive rate4.0%
- +10.32CPOE+0.39
- 12.5%Third-down rate33.3%
- 33.3%Red-zone TD rate100.0%
- 1.11Points / drive0.99
- 3.9%Turnover rate0.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 11–7 since 1999
Meetings average 46.8 points. TEN are 8-9-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.93
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.15