Closing spread
TEN -5.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
-0.1est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.069EPA / play-0.146
- 42.6%Success rate38.4%
- -0.057EPA / dropback-0.169
- -0.086EPA / rush-0.096
- 7.7%Explosive rate8.9%
- +0.43CPOE-5.42
- 36.0%Third-down rate33.6%
- 61.4%Red-zone TD rate50.5%
- 1.73Points / drive1.07
- 2.4%Turnover rate3.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 11–7 since 1999
Meetings average 46.8 points. CLE are 9-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 21/34 | 203 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 18 | 59 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 13 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delanie Walker | 7 | 10 | 63 | 0 |
| Taywan Taylor | 3 | 4 | 45 | 0 |
| Rishard Matthews | 3 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 3 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Eric Weems | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Eric Decker | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Kessler | 10/19 | 121 | 0 | 1 |
| DeShone Kizer | 12/20 | 114 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Crowell | 17 | 35 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Bryce Treggs | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Cody Kessler | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Njoku | 2 | 5 | 58 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 6 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 4 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Seth DeValve | 2 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Ricardo Louis | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Bryce Treggs | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Danny Vitale | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Rashard Higgins | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Kenny Britt | 2 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| Kasen Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
1.86%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.9%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.90
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-0.08