2017 · Week 7

Final / OT

Titans

Tennessee

QB Marcus Mariota

12·9

Browns

Cleveland

QB DeShone Kizer

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 74°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

TEN -5.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

-0.1est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapBrowns
  • -0.069EPA / play-0.146
  • 42.6%Success rate38.4%
  • -0.057EPA / dropback-0.169
  • -0.086EPA / rush-0.096
  • 7.7%Explosive rate8.9%
  • +0.43CPOE-5.42
  • 36.0%Third-down rate33.6%
  • 61.4%Red-zone TD rate50.5%
  • 1.73Points / drive1.07
  • 2.4%Turnover rate3.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 11–8 since 1999

Meetings average 47 points. CLE are 10-8-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7CLE @ TEN27–24CLE
2025 · W14TEN @ CLE31–29TEN
2023 · W3TEN @ CLE3–27CLE
2020 · W13CLE @ TEN41–35CLE
2019 · W1TEN @ CLE43–13TEN
2016 · W6CLE @ TEN26–28TEN
2015 · W2TEN @ CLE14–28CLE
2014 · W5CLE @ TEN29–28CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–CLE
TENQ1 15:001140Field goal3–0
CLEQ1 8:3839Punt3–0
TENQ1 6:3238Punt3–0
CLEQ1 5:081356Punt3–0
TENQ2 13:08316Turnover3–0
CLEQ2 12:11627Field goal3–3
TENQ2 8:311460Field goal6–3
CLEQ2 1:37947Turnover6–3
TENQ2 0:192-7End of half6–3
CLEQ3 15:0042Turnover6–3
TENQ3 13:28826Turnover on downs6–3
CLEQ3 9:321065Field goal6–6
TENQ3 4:25847Field goal9–6
CLEQ4 14:50638Turnover on downs9–6
TENQ4 12:17627Missed field goal9–6
CLEQ4 8:44620Turnover9–6
TENQ4 5:333-6Punt9–6
CLEQ4 4:17931Field goal9–9
TENQ4 0:4738Punt9–9
CLEQ4 0:1700End of half9–9
CLEOT30Punt9–9
TENOT530Punt9–9
CLEOT3-10Punt9–9
TENOT620Field goal12–9

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota21/3420300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeMarco Murray18593.30
Derrick Henry13131.00
Marcus Mariota188.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Delanie Walker710630
Taywan Taylor34450
Rishard Matthews36400
Jonnu Smith24220
DeMarco Murray34170
Derrick Henry23110
Eric Weems1150
Eric Decker0200

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cody Kessler10/1912101
DeShone Kizer12/2011402

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isaiah Crowell17352.10
Duke Johnson7263.70
Bryce Treggs166.00
Cody Kessler1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
David Njoku25580
Duke Johnson67450
Isaiah Crowell46360
Seth DeValve24270
Ricardo Louis34210
Bryce Treggs12190
Danny Vitale11110
Rashard Higgins13110
Kenny Britt2570
Kasen Williams0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

1.86%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.9%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.90
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin-0.08