2015 · Week 2

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Marcus Mariota

14·28

Browns

Cleveland

QB Johnny Manziel

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 64°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

CLE -1

Total

41

Model margin

+0.8est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapBrowns
  • -0.103EPA / play-0.074
  • 41.1%Success rate41.1%
  • -0.050EPA / dropback-0.025
  • -0.200EPA / rush-0.179
  • 7.8%Explosive rate7.0%
  • +0.30CPOE-0.75
  • 32.1%Third-down rate41.6%
  • 67.5%Red-zone TD rate41.3%
  • 1.32Points / drive1.32
  • 3.0%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 11–8 since 1999

Meetings average 47 points. CLE are 10-8-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7CLE @ TEN27–24CLE
2025 · W14TEN @ CLE31–29TEN
2023 · W3TEN @ CLE3–27CLE
2020 · W13CLE @ TEN41–35CLE
2019 · W1TEN @ CLE43–13TEN
2017 · W7TEN @ CLE12–9TEN
2016 · W6CLE @ TEN26–28TEN
2014 · W5CLE @ TEN29–28CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–CLE
TENQ1 15:00411Punt0–0
CLEQ1 13:31262Touchdown0–7
TENQ1 12:51525Turnover0–7
CLEQ1 10:28860Touchdown0–14
TENQ1 6:26625Punt0–14
CLEQ1 3:3333Punt0–14
TENQ1 1:56447Turnover0–14
CLEQ2 15:003-3Punt0–14
TENQ2 14:06620Punt0–14
CLEQ2 11:35951Turnover on downs0–14
TENQ2 6:39528Punt0–14
CLEQ2 2:4634Punt0–14
TENQ2 1:3939Opp touchdown0–21
TENQ2 0:532-12End of half0–21
CLEQ3 15:00727Punt0–21
TENQ3 11:10631Punt0–21
CLEQ3 7:113-10Punt0–21
TENQ3 5:45867Touchdown7–21
CLEQ3 1:3631Punt7–21
TENQ4 14:491677Touchdown14–21
CLEQ4 6:42780Touchdown14–28
TENQ4 2:521257Turnover14–28
CLEQ4 0:4000End of half14–28

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota21/3725720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dexter McCluster10989.80
Bishop Sankey12423.50
Marcus Mariota3196.30
Terrance West3103.30
Jalston Fowler133.00
Harry Douglas1-6-6.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Anthony Fasano57841
Chase Coffman46420
Justin Hunter22340
Dexter McCluster44260
Jalston Fowler11190
Kendall Wright24170
Craig Stevens11130
Dorial Green-Beckham12131
Harry Douglas1890
Bishop Sankey0200

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Johnny Manziel8/1517220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isaiah Crowell15724.81
Duke Johnson12433.60
Johnny Manziel310.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Benjamin341152
Andrew Hawkins34430
Gary Barnidge11170
Dwayne Bowe0100
Brian Hartline0300
Malcolm Johnson0100
Taylor Gabriel11-30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.1%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.23
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.49
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.77