Closing spread
CLE -1
Total
41
Model margin
+0.8est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Browns
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.103EPA / play-0.074
- 41.1%Success rate41.1%
- -0.050EPA / dropback-0.025
- -0.200EPA / rush-0.179
- 7.8%Explosive rate7.0%
- +0.30CPOE-0.75
- 32.1%Third-down rate41.6%
- 67.5%Red-zone TD rate41.3%
- 1.32Points / drive1.32
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 11–7 since 1999
Meetings average 46.8 points. CLE are 9-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 21/37 | 257 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dexter McCluster | 10 | 98 | 9.8 | 0 |
| Bishop Sankey | 12 | 42 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Terrance West | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Jalston Fowler | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Fasano | 5 | 7 | 84 | 1 |
| Chase Coffman | 4 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Justin Hunter | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 4 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Jalston Fowler | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Kendall Wright | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Craig Stevens | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Dorial Green-Beckham | 1 | 2 | 13 | 1 |
| Harry Douglas | 1 | 8 | 9 | 0 |
| Bishop Sankey | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Manziel | 8/15 | 172 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Crowell | 15 | 72 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Duke Johnson | 12 | 43 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Johnny Manziel | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Benjamin | 3 | 4 | 115 | 2 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 3 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| Gary Barnidge | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Dwayne Bowe | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Hartline | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Malcolm Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.1%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.23
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-1.49
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.77