2019 · Week 1

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Marcus Mariota

43·13

Browns

Cleveland

QB Baker Mayfield

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 71°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

CLE -5.5

Total

44

Model margin

+2.6est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapBrowns
  • +0.063EPA / play-0.027
  • 45.7%Success rate41.3%
  • +0.143EPA / dropback+0.025
  • -0.046EPA / rush-0.116
  • 11.6%Explosive rate10.1%
  • +3.45CPOE-3.23
  • 39.4%Third-down rate36.3%
  • 74.8%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
  • 1.99Points / drive1.80
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 11–8 since 1999

Meetings average 47 points. CLE are 10-8-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7CLE @ TEN27–24CLE
2025 · W14TEN @ CLE31–29TEN
2023 · W3TEN @ CLE3–27CLE
2020 · W13CLE @ TEN41–35CLE
2017 · W7TEN @ CLE12–9TEN
2016 · W6CLE @ TEN26–28TEN
2015 · W2TEN @ CLE14–28CLE
2014 · W5CLE @ TEN29–28CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–CLE
CLEQ1 15:00988Touchdown0–6
TENQ1 10:11658Field goal3–6
CLEQ1 6:325-10Punt3–6
TENQ1 3:2937Punt3–6
CLEQ1 2:17528Punt3–6
TENQ2 14:491447Touchdown10–6
CLEQ2 9:3939Punt10–6
TENQ2 8:27729Punt10–6
CLEQ2 5:03312Punt10–6
TENQ2 3:303-1Punt10–6
CLEQ2 1:471-2Safety12–6
TENQ2 1:42411Punt12–6
CLEQ2 0:57742End of half12–6
TENQ3 15:00444Field goal15–6
CLEQ3 11:53640Punt15–6
TENQ3 8:2336Punt15–6
CLEQ3 5:52776Touchdown15–13
TENQ3 2:10175Touchdown22–13
CLEQ3 1:57730Turnover22–13
TENQ4 14:11430Touchdown29–13
CLEQ4 12:3236Turnover29–13
TENQ4 11:17434Touchdown36–13
CLEQ4 9:031018Turnover on downs36–13
TENQ4 5:3641Punt42–13
CLEQ4 3:1110Opp touchdown43–13
CLEQ4 3:0249Turnover on downs43–13
TENQ4 1:1600End of half43–13

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota14/2424830

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry19844.41
Marcus Mariota3248.00
Jonnu Smith11010.00
Dion Lewis372.30
Ryan Tannehill2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Brown341000
Derrick Henry12751
Delanie Walker56552
Jonnu Smith1170
Dion Lewis3460
Adam Humphries1150
MyCole Pruitt0100
Tajae Sharpe0200
Corey Davis0300

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield25/3828513

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb17754.40
D'Ernest Johnson11313.00
Jarvis Landry11010.00
Dontrell Hilliard144.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Odell Beckham Jr.711710
Jarvis Landry47670
Rashard Higgins23460
David Njoku46371
D'Ernest Johnson22230
Damion Ratley22170
Dontrell Hilliard12140
Nick Chubb34100
Demetrius Harris0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

3.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.2%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.44
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.35
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.65