Closing spread
CLE -5.5
Total
44
Model margin
+2.6est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.063EPA / play-0.027
- 45.7%Success rate41.3%
- +0.143EPA / dropback+0.025
- -0.046EPA / rush-0.116
- 11.6%Explosive rate10.1%
- +3.45CPOE-3.23
- 39.4%Third-down rate36.3%
- 74.8%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
- 1.99Points / drive1.80
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 11–7 since 1999
Meetings average 46.8 points. CLE are 9-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 14/24 | 248 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 19 | 84 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Marcus Mariota | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 3 | 4 | 100 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 1 | 2 | 75 | 1 |
| Delanie Walker | 5 | 6 | 55 | 2 |
| Jonnu Smith | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 3 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tajae Sharpe | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Corey Davis | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 25/38 | 285 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 17 | 75 | 4.4 | 0 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 7 | 11 | 71 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 4 | 7 | 67 | 0 |
| Rashard Higgins | 2 | 3 | 46 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 4 | 6 | 37 | 1 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Damion Ratley | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 3 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
3.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.2%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.44
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+3.35
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.65