Closing spread
CLE -3.5
Total
38
Model margin
+2.8est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.023EPA / play-0.127
- 40.9%Success rate39.3%
- +0.014EPA / dropback-0.131
- -0.078EPA / rush-0.121
- 9.0%Explosive rate8.2%
- +0.48CPOE-5.66
- 34.1%Third-down rate32.3%
- 49.4%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
- 1.57Points / drive1.56
- 1.7%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 11–7 since 1999
Meetings average 46.8 points. CLE are 9-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 13/25 | 104 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 11 | 20 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Tyjae Spears | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 3 | 7 | 48 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 2 | 3 | 41 | 0 |
| Chig Okonkwo | 3 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Treylon Burks | 1 | 6 | 5 | 0 |
| Tyjae Spears | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 27/33 | 289 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Strong | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Jerome Ford | 10 | 18 | 1.8 | 1 |
| Deshaun Watson | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Harrison Bryant | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amari Cooper | 7 | 8 | 116 | 1 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 3 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 9 | 9 | 49 | 0 |
| Jerome Ford | 2 | 3 | 33 | 1 |
| Kareem Hunt | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 4 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.5%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.69
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.46
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.77