2023 · Week 3

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Ryan Tannehill

3·27

Browns

Cleveland

QB Deshaun Watson

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 68°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

CLE -3.5

Total

38

Model margin

+2.8est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapBrowns
  • -0.023EPA / play-0.127
  • 40.9%Success rate39.3%
  • +0.014EPA / dropback-0.131
  • -0.078EPA / rush-0.121
  • 9.0%Explosive rate8.2%
  • +0.48CPOE-5.66
  • 34.1%Third-down rate32.3%
  • 49.4%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
  • 1.57Points / drive1.56
  • 1.7%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 11–8 since 1999

Meetings average 47 points. CLE are 10-8-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7CLE @ TEN27–24CLE
2025 · W14TEN @ CLE31–29TEN
2020 · W13CLE @ TEN41–35CLE
2019 · W1TEN @ CLE43–13TEN
2017 · W7TEN @ CLE12–9TEN
2016 · W6CLE @ TEN26–28TEN
2015 · W2TEN @ CLE14–28CLE
2014 · W5CLE @ TEN29–28CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–CLE
CLEQ1 15:001148Field goal0–3
TENQ1 7:4937Punt0–3
CLEQ1 6:1837Punt0–3
TENQ1 4:5534Punt0–3
CLEQ1 3:30416Turnover0–3
TENQ1 1:203-9Field goal3–3
CLEQ2 14:141130Touchdown3–10
TENQ2 9:39911Punt3–10
CLEQ2 3:49646Field goal3–13
TENQ2 1:001055End of half3–13
TENQ3 15:00615Punt3–13
CLEQ3 11:231280Touchdown3–20
TENQ3 5:4932Punt3–20
CLEQ3 4:47833Punt3–20
TENQ3 0:113-7Punt3–20
CLEQ4 13:191159Touchdown3–27
TENQ4 6:51514Punt3–27
CLEQ4 4:49522Punt3–27
TENQ4 1:0622End of half3–27

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill13/2510400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry11201.80
Tyjae Spears461.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins37480
Chris Moore23410
Chig Okonkwo3470
Treylon Burks1650
Tyjae Spears4430

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson27/3328920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Pierre Strong6274.50
Jerome Ford10181.81
Deshaun Watson4164.00
Kareem Hunt5132.60
Harrison Bryant242.00
Marquise Goodwin111.00
Elijah Moore3-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amari Cooper781161
Donovan Peoples-Jones34490
Elijah Moore99490
Jerome Ford23331
Kareem Hunt23220
David Njoku44200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.5%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.69
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.46
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+2.77