Closing spread
DEN -3.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+3.6est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.035EPA / play-0.027
- 40.6%Success rate38.7%
- +0.016EPA / dropback+0.046
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.105
- 7.5%Explosive rate8.2%
- 36.1%Third-down rate39.1%
- 48.1%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
- 1.38Points / drive1.01
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.2%
- -0.063EPA / play allowed-0.134
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–25 since 1999
Meetings average 43.9 points. KC are 28-27-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DEN–KC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | Q1 15:00 | 11 | 19 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 10:16 | 8 | 28 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 5:09 | 8 | 13 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 2:22 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 1:08 | 8 | 26 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| KC | Q2 11:34 | 4 | 11 | Punt | 3–0 |
| DEN | Q2 8:58 | 2 | 19 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| KC | Q2 8:07 | 9 | 55 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| DEN | Q2 2:54 | 8 | 28 | Punt | 3–3 |
| KC | Q2 1:14 | 7 | 46 | Field goal | 3–6 |
| KC | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 3–6 |
| DEN | Q3 13:03 | 3 | 26 | Turnover | 3–6 |
| KC | Q3 12:01 | 5 | 55 | Touchdown | 3–13 |
| DEN | Q3 9:16 | 2 | -6 | Turnover | 3–13 |
| KC | Q3 8:23 | 3 | 1 | Field goal | 3–16 |
| DEN | Q3 6:14 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 3–16 |
| KC | Q3 3:41 | 4 | 20 | Turnover | 3–16 |
| DEN | Q3 1:38 | 4 | 34 | Touchdown | 10–16 |
| KC | Q4 14:58 | 10 | 61 | Touchdown | 10–23 |
| DEN | Q4 9:25 | 8 | 28 | Turnover | 10–23 |
| KC | Q4 5:51 | 7 | 80 | Field goal | 10–26 |
| DEN | Q4 2:14 | 13 | 45 | End of half | 10–26 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 11/16 | 107 | 0 | 1 |
| Bubby Brister | 9/15 | 65 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Davis | 21 | 79 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Detron Smith | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Howard Griffith | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Bubby Brister | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shannon Sharpe | 6 | 7 | 52 | 0 |
| Ed McCaffrey | 4 | 9 | 44 | 0 |
| Howard Griffith | 4 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Terrell Davis | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Byron Chamberlain | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Detron Smith | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Derek Loville | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Andre Cooper | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Doering | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Nash | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elvis Grbac | 15/20 | 179 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kimble Anders | 22 | 142 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Bam Morris | 11 | 32 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Rashaan Shehee | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Elvis Grbac | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Alexander | 6 | 7 | 117 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Andre Rison | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Rashaan Shehee | 3 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Kevin Lockett | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
6.76%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.7%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.97
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.61