2024 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Bo Nix

14·16

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 57°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

KC -7.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

+0.6est.

KC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapChiefs
  • +0.011EPA / play+0.071
  • 42.8%Success rate47.7%
  • +0.062EPA / dropback+0.142
  • -0.075EPA / rush-0.058
  • 9.0%Explosive rate5.8%
  • +0.58CPOE+2.51
  • 40.4%Third-down rate48.6%
  • 65.1%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
  • 2.16Points / drive2.36
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 31–24 since 1999

Meetings average 43.8 points. KC are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1DEN @ KC10–31KC
2025 · W17DEN @ KC20–13DEN
2025 · W11KC @ DEN19–22DEN
2024 · W18KC @ DEN0–38DEN
2023 · W8KC @ DEN9–24DEN
2023 · W6DEN @ KC8–19KC
2022 · W17DEN @ KC24–27KC
2022 · W14KC @ DEN34–28KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–KC
DENQ1 15:0031Punt0–0
KCQ1 13:37929Punt0–0
DENQ1 8:3453Punt0–0
KCQ1 5:5537Punt0–0
DENQ1 4:001085Touchdown7–0
KCQ2 14:201057Field goal7–3
DENQ2 9:02570Touchdown14–3
KCQ2 6:391265Touchdown14–10
DENQ2 1:44733Missed field goal14–10
KCQ3 15:003-6Punt14–10
DENQ3 13:19412Punt14–10
KCQ3 11:071565Field goal14–13
DENQ3 3:51810Punt14–13
KCQ4 14:51739Punt14–13
DENQ4 12:2133Punt14–13
KCQ4 10:40944Field goal14–16
DENQ4 5:571243Missed field goal14–16

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bo Nix22/3021520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Audric Estimé14533.80
Marvin Mims Jr.3175.70
Jaleel McLaughlin2126.00
Javonte Williams111.00
Bo Nix3-5-1.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Courtland Sutton69701
Devaughn Vele44391
Adam Trautman11340
Lil'Jordan Humphrey23230
Lucas Krull22210
Marvin Mims Jr.44130
Troy Franklin1390
Javonte Williams2260

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes28/4226610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kareem Hunt14352.50
Patrick Mahomes3196.30
Carson Steele231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kareem Hunt710650
Travis Kelce812641
DeAndre Hopkins45560
Samaje Perine22370
Noah Gray22180
Xavier Worthy14110
Justin Watson2260
Peyton Hendershot1160
Mecole Hardman1130
Justyn Ross0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.54.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

1.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.7%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.04
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+0.59