Closing spread
KC -7.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+0.6est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.011EPA / play+0.071
- 42.8%Success rate47.7%
- +0.062EPA / dropback+0.142
- -0.075EPA / rush-0.058
- 9.0%Explosive rate5.8%
- +0.58CPOE+2.51
- 40.4%Third-down rate48.6%
- 65.1%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
- 2.16Points / drive2.36
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–24 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. KC are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 22/30 | 215 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Audric Estimé | 14 | 53 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Bo Nix | 3 | -5 | -1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 6 | 9 | 70 | 1 |
| Devaughn Vele | 4 | 4 | 39 | 1 |
| Adam Trautman | 1 | 1 | 34 | 0 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Lucas Krull | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 4 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Troy Franklin | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 28/42 | 266 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 14 | 35 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Carson Steele | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 7 | 10 | 65 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 8 | 12 | 64 | 1 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 4 | 5 | 56 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 2 | 2 | 37 | 0 |
| Noah Gray | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Xavier Worthy | 1 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Justin Watson | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Peyton Hendershot | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Justyn Ross | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.7%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.04
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+0.59