Closing spread
DEN -13.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
-5.1est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.036EPA / play+0.042
- 43.7%Success rate44.5%
- +0.097EPA / dropback+0.093
- -0.069EPA / rush-0.060
- 8.1%Explosive rate7.2%
- -1.38CPOE-1.09
- 42.4%Third-down rate39.4%
- 62.1%Red-zone TD rate54.7%
- 2.10Points / drive2.23
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–24 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. KC are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 26/38 | 182 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RJ Harvey | 14 | 43 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Bo Nix | 9 | 42 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 7 | 40 | 5.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 4 | 10 | 40 | 0 |
| RJ Harvey | 5 | 6 | 33 | 1 |
| Adam Trautman | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 2 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 4 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Troy Franklin | 4 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Michael Bandy | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 3 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Oladokun | 13/22 | 66 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 7 | 38 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 9 | 32 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Chris Oladokun | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Xavier Worthy | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 5 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Marquise Brown | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Brashard Smith | 3 | 4 | 5 | 1 |
| Noah Gray | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Xavier Worthy | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
1.81%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
35.6%
Expected total
42.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.24
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-5.57
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-5.10