2025 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Bo Nix

20·13

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Chris Oladokun

GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass

Closing spread

DEN -13.5

Total

37.5

Model margin

-5.1est.

KC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapChiefs
  • +0.036EPA / play+0.042
  • 43.7%Success rate44.5%
  • +0.097EPA / dropback+0.093
  • -0.069EPA / rush-0.060
  • 8.1%Explosive rate7.2%
  • -1.38CPOE-1.09
  • 42.4%Third-down rate39.4%
  • 62.1%Red-zone TD rate54.7%
  • 2.10Points / drive2.23
  • 1.3%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 31–24 since 1999

Meetings average 43.8 points. KC are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1DEN @ KC10–31KC
2025 · W11KC @ DEN19–22DEN
2024 · W18KC @ DEN0–38DEN
2024 · W10DEN @ KC14–16KC
2023 · W8KC @ DEN9–24DEN
2023 · W6DEN @ KC8–19KC
2022 · W17DEN @ KC24–27KC
2022 · W14KC @ DEN34–28KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–KC
DENQ1 15:001356Field goal3–0
KCQ1 6:58615Punt3–0
DENQ1 3:463-2Turnover3–0
KCQ1 2:531035Touchdown3–7
DENQ2 12:49513Punt3–7
KCQ2 10:31420Punt3–7
DENQ2 8:231584Field goal6–7
KCQ2 0:1919End of half6–7
KCQ3 15:0061Field goal6–10
DENQ3 11:421582Touchdown13–10
KCQ3 1:553-1Punt13–10
DENQ4 14:51611Punt13–10
KCQ4 10:59516Field goal13–13
DENQ4 8:031460Touchdown20–13
KCQ4 1:45744Turnover on downs20–13
DENQ4 0:1400End of half20–13

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bo Nix26/3818211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
RJ Harvey14433.10
Bo Nix9424.71
Jaleel McLaughlin7405.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Courtland Sutton410400
RJ Harvey56331
Adam Trautman22240
Lil'Jordan Humphrey25230
Evan Engram44210
Troy Franklin44170
Michael Bandy22140
Marvin Mims Jr.34100

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chris Oladokun13/226610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kareem Hunt7385.40
Isiah Pacheco9323.60
Chris Oladokun2115.50
Xavier Worthy111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce56360
JuJu Smith-Schuster33160
Marquise Brown1370
Brashard Smith3451
Noah Gray1120
Xavier Worthy0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -13.53.0%3.3%4.9%3.2%7.4%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

1.81%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

35.6%

Expected total

42.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.24
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-5.57
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-5.10